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Senate AI Surveillance hearing

What will the witnesses say during Senate AI Surveillance hearing?

Held

Tue, Aug 4

2:30 PM ET /

Hearing

Other

Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now JD Vance +2 later

5 said 9 not said of 14 words

Not held 4 of 50 past Hearing events

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Hearing events Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said

NO Before startBefore57¢ All— —
YES Before startBefore88¢ All8/12 67% N Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore91¢ All— —
YES Before startBefore61¢ All16/25 64% Y Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore46¢ All1/3 33% N N Y
NO Before startBefore32¢ All4/8 50% Y N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore38¢ All8/11 73% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore37¢ All0/1 0% N
NO Before startBefore37¢ All9/12 75% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore23¢ All1/2 50% N Y
YES Before startBefore95¢ All1/2 50% N Y
NO Before startBefore58¢ All1/3 33% Y N N
YES Before startBefore91¢ All— —
NO Before startBefore17¢ All9/22 41% N N N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Hearing events where the word was a market.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO). Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Special for this event

  • Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify — any participating witness must be speaking in an official capacity for the Contract to resolve Yes (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, or unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic, do not qualify).

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If any participating witness says {word} as part of Senate Committee on the Judiciary - Your Data, Their Profit: The Consumer Cost of AI Surveillance Pricing, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Senate Committee on the Judiciary - Your Data, Their Profit: The Consumer Cost of AI Surveillance Pricing will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Senate Committee on the Judiciary - Your Data, Their Profit: The Consumer Cost of AI Surveillance Pricing will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on any participating witness speaking in an official capacity. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify — any participating witness must be speaking in an official capacity for the Contract to resolve Yes (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, or unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic, do not qualify).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

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