A case is a settled market worth learning from: what was said, how Kalshi settled it and the rule behind the result. The results come from Kalshi’s data. The reasons come from public sources or from traders’ reports; each case says which.
Confirmed the result is in Kalshi’s data and a public source confirms the reason.
Outcome only the result is in Kalshi’s data; the reason comes from traders’ reports and no public source confirms it.
Rule text no dispute: a clause of the rules worth knowing.
On Sep 22, 2026 Kalshi listed Trump’s address to the UN General Assembly and, as a separate event, any UN meeting or event that day except the address. Of the 19 words the two events shared, 8 settled differently: in the official transcripts “Biden” and “Fentanyl” come only from his meetings and “Israel” and “AI” only from the address, and each settled YES only where it was said. In one meeting Japan’s prime minister said “AI” and Trump did not, so the meetings market settled NO.
Takeaway On busy days read the event definition: a word said at a side meeting does not settle the address market, and the reverse. Only the named speaker counts, not the leader sitting next to him.
Rule in forceRemarks at press conferences, interviews, side events, bilateral meetings, or separate statements will not count.event rules of Sep 22, 2026
The event covered the first livestream on the White House YouTube channel after 10:35 pm ET on Aug 12, 2026, leaving out Trump’s remarks in Nassau County, which Kalshi listed as a separate event. By Kalshi’s own schedule the qualifying stream came on Aug 17, an Oval Office greeting, and the markets settled that afternoon. “Iran (3+ times)” settled YES; “Hormuz” settled NO, and in the official transcript of that greeting only reporters say it.
Takeaway For a “next livestream” event, watch the named channel from the stated time; a carved-out event settles only its own markets. Words in reporters’ questions do not count.
Rule in forcefirst livestream on the White House main YouTube channel (@WhiteHouse) after August 12th, 2026event rules of Aug 17, 2026
At Trump’s announcement with the EPA Administrator on May 21, 2026, the official transcript has him saying “electricity” (about Cuba) and “election”, but never “electric” or “EV”. The market settled NO. Traders’ reports also describe a cut-off word that began like “electr-”; the transcript does not show it, and no public source confirms it.
Takeaway A longer word built on the strike is a different word, so “electricity” is not “electric”. A broken-off fragment is not the word either: the terms forgive only minor mispronunciations when the word is still clear.
Rule in forceOther grammatical changes (tense, conjugation, derivation) do not.terms PDF of May 6, 2026
Since mid-March 2026 most person events carry an extra market, “Event does not qualify”. It is not a word anyone has to say: it settles YES when the event is cancelled, not broadcast or otherwise fails the rules, and then every word settles NO. In our data 14 events had ended this way by late October 2026, among them Chicago Opening Night, a G7 working lunch, the meeting with Netanyahu on Jul 28 and a Bernie Sanders rally in Amarillo. We have not checked why each of them failed to qualify.
Takeaway This market prices the risk that an event is closed or cancelled, so look at it before buying words on a meeting with uncertain press access. Under the current terms a partial broadcast settles it NO, and the words said in that part count.
Rule in force"Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.event rules of Mar 31, 2026
At the White House press briefing of Mar 25, 2026, the market “Affordable / Affordability” settled NO. According to traders’ reports, the press secretary said “afford” but neither listed form; no public transcript confirms this. A Kathy Hochul market a month earlier was listed as “Afford / Affordable / Affordability”, so Kalshi adds the verb when it wants the verb to count.
Takeaway A shared root is not a match: only the listed forms and their plurals and possessives count. A form missing from the slash list is excluded.
KXSECPRESSMENTION-26MAR31 covered the next White House press briefing, which was held on Mar 25, 2026; its markets settled that day, six days before the date in the ticker. KXHOCHULMENTION-26MAR07 covered the first livestream on Governor Hochul’s YouTube channel after Feb 23 and settled on Feb 26, more than a week before its ticker date. In both, the rules, not the title or the ticker, said which appearance counts.
Takeaway Read the event definition and trade the first appearance that fits it; the ticker date only marks the latest one.
Rule in forcethe next Press Briefing by the White House Press Secretary (does not include gaggles)event rules of Mar 25, 2026
At the Shield of the Americas Summit in Miami on Mar 7, 2026, Trump said twice that he had ended “eight wars”, according to the official transcript. The market “Eight War” settled YES: the plural of a phrase counts like the plural of a word. The current terms use this very strike as their example and also count “8 Wars” and “Eighth War”.
Takeaway Digits and number words are the same, and an ordinal counts when the strike contains a number. A bare number word is different: “first” does not count for “one”.
Rule in forceThe exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.event rules of Mar 7, 2026
The rules of Trump’s NBC interview on the Super Bowl LX pregame show (Feb 8, 2026) had an extra sentence: previously aired content would count. Two weeks earlier the Board of Peace Charter announcement said the opposite, that recordings aired during the event would not count, and added that the Q&A would. From late January 2026 the standard text of most events excludes previously aired content and archival footage.
Takeaway Recordings and Q&A are decided event by event. Read the sentences after the standard text before you rely on a clip.
Rule in forceFor the purpose of this market, previously aired content will count.event rules of Feb 8, 2026
In his CBS Evening News interview on Jan 13, 2026, Trump called the strikes on Iran “a complete obliteration”. The transcript CBS published has that noun once and no “obliterate” or “obliterated”. The market settled NO.
Takeaway A noun made from a verb is a different word, even when it means the same thing. A verb market pays only on the listed verb forms.
The market “Free Bus / Fast & Free” on Mayor Mamdani’s first new-media press conference (Jan 7, 2026) settled YES. According to traders’ reports he said “fare-free bus” rather than “free bus”; no public transcript confirms the wording. The event’s own rules had no clause on hyphens, and the rule below comes from the current terms, published after this event.
Takeaway The current terms count a word inside a hyphenated compound (“pro-Palestine” for “Palestine”) but not inside a fused word (“wildfire” for “fire”). Older press-briefing and Trump window rules excluded hyphenated words, so check the date of the rules.
Kalshi listed Trump’s Christmas Eve 2025 calls with service members. Earlier that evening he took NORAD Santa-tracker calls from children and talked about tracking Santa, as NBC News reported; the calls with service members followed. Santa settled NO, while Tariff and China settled YES.
Takeaway Only the appearance named in the rules counts, even when a related one runs just before it the same evening. Before paying a high price for a word you heard, check which part of the evening it came from.
Rule in forceAdditional content not included in the original broadcast or stream will not count.event rules of Dec 24, 2025
Gianni Infantino’s market “Globe / Global” at the FIFA World Cup final draw on Dec 5, 2025 settled YES about half an hour after it closed. According to traders’ reports, the word was heard in a recorded video segment shown during the ceremony, not in his live speech; no public source confirms this. The event’s rules said nothing about recordings.
Takeaway When an event’s rules are silent on recordings, expect a clip played as part of the official show to count; the current terms say so. If the event’s rules exclude recordings, as some do (C13), they win.
Rule in forceVideo of the FIFA World Cup 2025 Final Draw will be primarily usedevent rules of Dec 5, 2025
Trump’s Oval Office meeting with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa on Nov 10, 2025 was closed to the press, as the Associated Press reported. There was no broadcast to count from, and all 24 word markets settled NO. The event had no “Event does not qualify” market; its rules said a closed event resolves to NO.
Takeaway From late September 2025 to early March 2026, a closed-press event meant NO on every word. Since mid-March 2026 the same situation pays a separate “Event does not qualify” market (C04).
Rule in forceIf this event is not opened to the press... this market will resolve to no.event rules of Nov 10, 2025