mentions

How Kalshi settles mention markets

Kalshi’s terms decide every result. This page puts them in our own words, one short rule per topic, with the cases that show each rule at work. It follows Kalshi’s terms for mention markets as they were online on Oct 28, 2026. The rules of each event can add details or exceptions, so read the rules of the market you trade.

Ask AI about the rules All cases

The exact word, its plural and its possessive

A market counts its exact word, its plural and its possessive: “Tariff” counts “tariffs” and “tariff’s”. A plural inside a name counts too: “Cats” in the title of the musical counts for “Cat”. When the market’s word is a plural, the singular does not count.

Plural and possessive noun forms count. MENTION.pdf

Words with a slash

A market such as “Doge / Dogecoin” lists alternatives: any one of them counts, each with its own plural and possessive.

one of multiple words/phrases, any of which are acceptable MENTION.pdf

Compounds

A word inside a compound counts when the compound is written with a space or a hyphen: “fire station” counts for “Fire”, and “pro-Palestine” for “Palestine”. A word fused into another does not: “wildfire” does not count for “Fire”. The older rules of some series left hyphenated compounds out, so check the date of the rules you read.

Hyphenated compounds (words connected by hyphens) count MENTION.pdf

Other forms of a word

Other forms of the word do not count: another tense (“ran” for “Run”), a related word (“immigration” for “Immigrant”) or a noun made from a verb (“obliteration” for “Obliterate”). A word with no plural has none to count: “economics” does not count for the adjective “Economic”.

Other grammatical changes (tense, conjugation, derivation) do not. MENTION.pdf

Words that sound alike

A word that only sounds like the market’s word does not count: “right” does not count for “Write”.

Homophones (same sound, different spelling) do not count MENTION.pdf

Words spelled the same

A word spelled the same counts whatever it means: “bass” counts for the fish and for the guitar, and “apple” for the fruit as well as for the company.

Homonyms and homographs (same spelling) COUNT regardless of meaning or pronunciation MENTION.pdf

Mispronunciations

A slip counts when it is clear which word was meant: “Mandani” counts for “Mamdani”. A word mangled beyond recognition does not, and neither does a word spelled out in the phonetic alphabet.

Minor unintentional mispronunciations COUNT if context makes intent clear MENTION.pdf

Numbers

A number counts whether the market writes it in digits or in words, but only when it is said on its own: “five hundred” does not count for “Five”. A unit such as “Trillion” or “Billion” is the exception: it counts inside a larger number, so “five trillion” counts for “Trillion”. When the market’s word is written in digits or is a phrase with a number in it, the ordinal counts too: “8 wars” and “eighth war” both count for “Eight War”. A bare number word and its ordinal stay apart: “first” does not count for “One”.

Ordinals COUNT when <word> is written numerically OR a phrase that includes a number MENTION.pdf

Acronyms

An acronym counts when it is said as a word or letter by letter: “NASA” and “N-A-S-A” both count. Its expanded form does not count unless the market lists it: “artificial intelligence” does not count for “AI”, which is why markets often list both, as in “AI / Artificial Intelligence”.

Expanded forms of acronyms do NOT count MENTION.pdf

Recordings and clips

By the general terms, a clip played as part of the official event counts, and behind-the-scenes footage does not. Many events change this in their own rules: some say that recordings aired during the event count, others that they do not. The rules of the event decide.

included if presented as part of the official presentation MENTION.pdf

Which part of the event counts

Only words said inside the event that the market names count. Whether a question-and-answer part or a press conference after a speech counts depends on the rules of the event; many say so in a sentence of their own. A stream that starts before the event, or another meeting on the same day, is a separate event, even when Kalshi lists markets for both.

the Exchange may specify what is included MENTION.pdf

When an event does not qualify

An event that is cancelled, is not streamed live or is closed to the press does not qualify. Before mid-March 2026, the rules of many events said that such an event settles every word NO. Since then, most events have an “Event does not qualify” market: it settles YES, and every word settles NO. If only part of the event is broadcast, the event still qualifies and the words said in that part count. A postponed event stays open when the new date is announced by the end of the next day and falls within 14 days.

If the event is cancelled, the Contract will resolve to "Event does not qualify/occur". MENTION.pdf

Dates in tickers

The date in a ticker is not always the day of the event: for a market on “the next briefing” it is a deadline. A market with 26MAR31 in its ticker settled on March 25, 2026, after the briefing of that day. The rules say which event a market covers; the ticker does not.

Sources, and rules that change

Most series settle a market by the video of the event first and turn to transcripts when the video leaves a doubt; the rules of each event say which. Each series names its settlement sources: see Series terms below. Kalshi also changes its rules over time, both the terms of a series and the text of each event, so read the rules of the event you trade: every event page here shows them under its word table.

The official transcripts on this site (Official) come from govinfo.gov 4–7 weeks after an event and are lightly edited by the White House, so a count there can differ from what Kalshi heard.

Series terms

Each series has its own terms on Kalshi. We link to them; we do not copy them.

SeriesFull termsSettlement sources
Trump, JD Vance, Bernie Sanders, ABC World News KXTRUMPMENTION, KXTRUMPMENTIONB, KXVANCEMENTION, KXBERNIEMENTION, KXWORLDNEWSMENTION MENTION.pdf ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico
Trump KXTRUMPSAY, KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME, KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY, KXTRUMPSAYMONTH TRUMPSAY.pdf ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, PBS, the President of the United States, CBS, NBC, Bloomberg, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico, The New York Times
Press Secretary KXSECPRESSMENTION SECPRESSMENTION.pdf White House, White House Press Secretary
Zohran Mamdani KXMAMDANIMENTION MENTION.pdf NYC Mayors Office
Earnings calls 166 companies EARNINGSMENTION.pdf Different for each company
Earnings calls 13 companies MENTIONEARN.pdf Bloomberg

Where our counter differs from these terms

Kalshi’s result is what counts. Our counter, behind the official counts, the heard marks of Transcribe and the columns and the search of My transcripts, reads text and follows these terms as far as text allows. Where it still differs:

  • It reads numbers in words only from zero to twenty, the round tens up to ninety and their ordinals: “two hundred fifty” does not count for “250”, nor “four ten” for “410”.
  • It counts a plural that the word does not have: “economics” counts for “Economic”.
  • It goes by how the transcript writes a compound, not by the dictionaries Kalshi checks: “healthcare” written as one word does not count for “Health”.
  • It reads an acronym spelled letter by letter only with points, as in “N.A.S.A.”, and an abbreviation only as written: “N-A-S-A” does not count for “NASA”, nor “Dr.” for “Doctor”.
  • It cannot tell words that sound alike, mispronunciations or who is speaking. That is what Dismiss and Counting off on the Transcribe page are for.

For a market whose older rules left hyphenated compounds out, the counter leaves them out too. Check the words above yourself.