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Kash Patel joins FBI budget hearing

What will Kash Patel say during the FBI budget hearing?

Held

Tue, May 12

2:00 PM ET /

Hearing

Other

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Also now JD Vance +2 later

8 said 7 not said of 15 words

Not held 0 of 7 past Hearing events

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Word Result Before start All Hearing events Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said

YES Before startBefore74¢ All3/5 60% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore17¢ All— —
YES Before startBefore35¢ All2/3 67% Y Y N
NO Before startBefore30¢ All1/1 100% Y
YES Before startBefore29¢ All— —
NO Before startBefore22¢ All0/1 0% N
YES Before startBefore70¢ All— —
YES Before startBefore77¢ All0/1 0% N
YES Before startBefore62¢ All1/1 100% Y
NO Before startBefore37¢ All1/1 100% Y
YES Before startBefore58¢ All— —
NO Before startBefore44¢ All— —
NO Before startBefore43¢ All— —
YES Before startBefore91¢ All1/1 100% Y
NO Before startBefore70¢ All3/4 75% N Y Y Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Hearing events where the word was a market.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO). Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico

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Special for this event

  • The event will resolve based on Kash Patel speaking in an official capacity.
  • If Kash Patel is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Kash Patel says {word} as part of A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2027 Budget Request for the Federal Bureau of Investigation; the Drug Enforcement Administration; the United States Marshals Service; and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2027 Budget Request for the Federal Bureau of Investigation; the Drug Enforcement Administration; the United States Marshals Service; and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2027 Budget Request for the Federal Bureau of Investigation; the Drug Enforcement Administration; the United States Marshals Service; and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Kash Patel speaking in an official capacity. If Kash Patel is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

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