Satya Nadella speaks at Microsoft Ignite opening keynote

What will Satya Nadella say during Microsoft Ignite keynote?

Starts in 7 d 1 h

1:00 PM ET /

Microsoft

Speech / announcement

Also now Adobe General Politics +2 later

0 said 15 open of 15 words

Not held 0 of 2 past Microsoft events, 0 of 2 speeches / announcements Kalshi’s market “Event does not qualify”: Yes bid / ask 3¢ / 4¢

Choose events
Word Yes bid / ask All Microsoft events Speeches / announcements Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said

90¢ / 96¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / announcements1/1 100% small n Y
88¢ / 94¢ All2/2 100% Speeches / announcements2/2 100% small n Y Y
76¢ / 80¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / announcements1/1 100% small n Y
78¢ / 80¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / announcements1/1 100% small n Y
71¢ / 76¢ All— Speeches / announcements— —
71¢ / 75¢ All— Speeches / announcements— —
60¢ / 66¢ All— Speeches / announcements— —
42¢ / 56¢ All— Speeches / announcements— —
39¢ / 48¢ All— Speeches / announcements— —
43¢ / 46¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / announcements0/2 0% small n N N
35¢ / 46¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / announcements0/1 0% small n N
32¢ / 40¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / announcements0/1 0% small n N
27¢ / 36¢ All— Speeches / announcements— —
16¢ / 22¢ All— Speeches / announcements— —
12¢ / 22¢ All— Speeches / announcements— —

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Microsoft events where the word was a market.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO). Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Yes bid / ask, such as 70¢ / 75¢: the best price to sell Yes on Kalshi, then the best price to buy it.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Special for this event

  • Satya Nadella speaking in an official capacity.

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Satya Nadella says {word} as part of Microsoft Ignite opening keynote originally scheduled for November 17, 2026 (scheduled session: 1–3 PM EST), then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the Microsoft Ignite opening keynote originally scheduled for November 17, 2026 (scheduled session: 1–3 PM EST) using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Microsoft Ignite opening keynote originally scheduled for November 17, 2026 (scheduled session: 1–3 PM EST) will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
Satya Nadella speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

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