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Dan Caine delivers Naval Academy Commencement Address

What will Dan Caine say during his Naval Academy Commencement Address?

Held

Fri, May 22

8:30 AM ET /

General Politics

Speech / announcement

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2 said 13 not said of 15 words

Not held 3 of 56 past General Politics events, 2 of 11 speeches / announcements

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Word Result Before start All General Politics events Speeches / announcements Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore— All11/19 58% Speeches / announcements3/6 50% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore— All— Speeches / announcements— —
NO Before startBefore— All1/4 25% Speeches / announcements— N N N Y
NO Before startBefore— All1/5 20% Speeches / announcements— N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / announcements— —
NO Before startBefore— All0/2 0% Speeches / announcements— N N
NO Before startBefore— All9/13 69% Speeches / announcements3/4 75% small n Y N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / announcements— —
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / announcements— —
NO Before startBefore— All6/11 55% Speeches / announcements1/2 50% small n Y Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore— All5/16 31% Speeches / announcements1/5 20% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / announcements— —
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / announcements— —
NO Before startBefore— All12/15 80% Speeches / announcements3/4 75% small n Y Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore— All0/2 0% Speeches / announcements— N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past General Politics events where the word was a market.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / announcements. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico

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Special for this event

  • The event will resolve based on Dan Caine speaking in an official capacity.
  • If Dan Caine is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Dan Caine says {word} as part of Naval Academy Class of 2026 Commencement Address, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Naval Academy Class of 2026 Commencement Address will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Naval Academy Class of 2026 Commencement Address will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Dan Caine speaking in an official capacity. If Dan Caine is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

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