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Brett Kavanaugh holds Notre Dame Lecture

What will Brett Kavanaugh say during his Notre Dame Lecture?

Held

Fri, Sep 11

3:30 PM ET /

General Politics

Speech / announcement

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2 said 8 not said of 10 words

Not held 4 of 81 past General Politics events, 3 of 14 speeches / announcements

Choose events
Word Result Before start All General Politics events Speeches / announcements Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore18¢ All17/32 53% Speeches / announcements3/5 60% N Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore9¢ All15/31 48% Speeches / announcements3/7 43% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore5¢ All— Speeches / announcements— —
YES Before startBefore78¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / announcements— Y N
NO Before startBefore57¢ All— Speeches / announcements— —
YES Before startBefore44¢ All— Speeches / announcements— —
NO Before startBefore5¢ All10/22 45% Speeches / announcements3/6 50% N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore89¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / announcements— Y
NO Before startBefore4¢ All3/13 23% Speeches / announcements0/1 0% small n N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore7¢ All30/40 75% Speeches / announcements3/5 60% Y Y Y N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past General Politics events where the word was a market.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / announcements. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Special for this event

  • The event will resolve based on Brett Kavanaugh speaking in an official capacity.
  • Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify — Brett Kavanaugh must be speaking in an official capacity for the Contract to resolve Yes (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, or unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic, do not qualify).

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Brett Kavanaugh says {word} as part of Jeanie Poole O'Shaughnessy Memorial Lecture, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Jeanie Poole O'Shaughnessy Memorial Lecture will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Jeanie Poole O'Shaughnessy Memorial Lecture will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Brett Kavanaugh speaking in an official capacity. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify — Brett Kavanaugh must be speaking in an official capacity for the Contract to resolve Yes (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, or unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic, do not qualify).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

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