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Will Ferrell hosts SNL

What will Will Ferrell say during his SNL opening monologue?

Held

Sat, May 16

11:30 PM ET /

SNL

Other

Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now JD Vance +2 later

1 said 11 not said of 12 words

Not held 1 of 20 past SNL events

Choose events
Word Result Before start All SNL events Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said

YES Before startBefore36¢ All— —
NO Before startBefore5¢ All— —
NO Before startBefore16¢ All— —
NO Before startBefore9¢ All— —
NO Before startBefore6¢ All2/2 100% Y Y
NO Before startBefore7¢ All0/5 0% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore15¢ All— —
NO Before startBefore35¢ All0/1 0% N
NO Before startBefore9¢ All— —
NO Before startBefore12¢ All— —
NO Before startBefore4¢ All— —
NO Before startBefore7¢ All4/15 27% N N N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past SNL events where the word was a market.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO). Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico

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Special for this event

  • The event will resolve based on Will Ferrell speaking in an official capacity.
  • If Will Ferrell is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Will Ferrell says {word} as part of SNL opening monologue, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the SNL opening monologue will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the SNL opening monologue will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
Additional content not included in the original broadcast or stream will not count.
Promotional content aired during the event will count, but advertisements will not.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Will Ferrell speaking in an official capacity. If Will Ferrell is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

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