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Case library

A case is a settled market worth learning from: what was said, how Kalshi settled it and the rule behind the result. The results come from Kalshi’s data. The reasons come from public sources or from traders’ reports; each case says which.

  • Confirmed the result is in Kalshi’s data and a public source confirms the reason.
  • Outcome only the result is in Kalshi’s data; the reason comes from traders’ reports and no public source confirms it.
  • Rule text no dispute: a clause of the rules worth knowing.
All topics 9 Plural and possessive 1 Slash alternatives 0 Compounds 0 Other word forms 2 Numbers 1 Recordings and clips 1 What part counts 4 Events that do not qualify 2 Dates and deadlines 1 Sources and rule changes 1
All speakers 2 Trump 1 Press Secretary 0 JD Vance 0 Zohran Mamdani 0 Bernie Sanders 0 Other speakers 1

1 case

Recordings: one event counted them, another excluded them

Feb 8, 2026 Rule text Trump

Events Trump's NBC Interview, Board of Peace Charter Announcement

The rules of Trump’s NBC interview on the Super Bowl LX pregame show (Feb 8, 2026) had an extra sentence: previously aired content would count. Two weeks earlier the Board of Peace Charter announcement said the opposite, that recordings aired during the event would not count, and added that the Q&A would. From late January 2026 the standard text of most events excludes previously aired content and archival footage.

Takeaway Recordings and Q&A are decided event by event. Read the sentences after the standard text before you rely on a clip.

Rule in force For the purpose of this market, previously aired content will count. event rules of Feb 8, 2026

Recordings and clips What part counts