A case is a settled market worth learning from: what was said, how Kalshi settled it and the rule behind the result. The results come from Kalshi’s data. The reasons come from public sources or from traders’ reports; each case says which.
Confirmed the result is in Kalshi’s data and a public source confirms the reason.
Outcome only the result is in Kalshi’s data; the reason comes from traders’ reports and no public source confirms it.
Rule text no dispute: a clause of the rules worth knowing.
The rules of Trump’s NBC interview on the Super Bowl LX pregame show (Feb 8, 2026) had an extra sentence: previously aired content would count. Two weeks earlier the Board of Peace Charter announcement said the opposite, that recordings aired during the event would not count, and added that the Q&A would. From late January 2026 the standard text of most events excludes previously aired content and archival footage.
Takeaway Recordings and Q&A are decided event by event. Read the sentences after the standard text before you rely on a clip.
Rule in forceFor the purpose of this market, previously aired content will count.event rules of Feb 8, 2026
Gianni Infantino’s market “Globe / Global” at the FIFA World Cup final draw on Dec 5, 2025 settled YES about half an hour after it closed. According to traders’ reports, the word was heard in a recorded video segment shown during the ceremony, not in his live speech; no public source confirms this. The event’s rules said nothing about recordings.
Takeaway When an event’s rules are silent on recordings, expect a clip played as part of the official show to count; the current terms say so. If the event’s rules exclude recordings, as some do (C13), they win.
Rule in forceVideo of the FIFA World Cup 2025 Final Draw will be primarily usedevent rules of Dec 5, 2025