A case is a settled market worth learning from: what was said, how Kalshi settled it and the rule behind the result. The results come from Kalshi’s data. The reasons come from public sources or from traders’ reports; each case says which.
Confirmed the result is in Kalshi’s data and a public source confirms the reason.
Outcome only the result is in Kalshi’s data; the reason comes from traders’ reports and no public source confirms it.
Rule text no dispute: a clause of the rules worth knowing.
On Sep 22, 2026 Kalshi listed Trump’s address to the UN General Assembly and, as a separate event, any UN meeting or event that day except the address. Of the 19 words the two events shared, 8 settled differently: in the official transcripts “Biden” and “Fentanyl” come only from his meetings and “Israel” and “AI” only from the address, and each settled YES only where it was said. In one meeting Japan’s prime minister said “AI” and Trump did not, so the meetings market settled NO.
Takeaway On busy days read the event definition: a word said at a side meeting does not settle the address market, and the reverse. Only the named speaker counts, not the leader sitting next to him.
Rule in forceRemarks at press conferences, interviews, side events, bilateral meetings, or separate statements will not count.event rules of Sep 22, 2026
The event covered the first livestream on the White House YouTube channel after 10:35 pm ET on Aug 12, 2026, leaving out Trump’s remarks in Nassau County, which Kalshi listed as a separate event. By Kalshi’s own schedule the qualifying stream came on Aug 17, an Oval Office greeting, and the markets settled that afternoon. “Iran (3+ times)” settled YES; “Hormuz” settled NO, and in the official transcript of that greeting only reporters say it.
Takeaway For a “next livestream” event, watch the named channel from the stated time; a carved-out event settles only its own markets. Words in reporters’ questions do not count.
Rule in forcefirst livestream on the White House main YouTube channel (@WhiteHouse) after August 12th, 2026event rules of Aug 17, 2026
The rules of Trump’s NBC interview on the Super Bowl LX pregame show (Feb 8, 2026) had an extra sentence: previously aired content would count. Two weeks earlier the Board of Peace Charter announcement said the opposite, that recordings aired during the event would not count, and added that the Q&A would. From late January 2026 the standard text of most events excludes previously aired content and archival footage.
Takeaway Recordings and Q&A are decided event by event. Read the sentences after the standard text before you rely on a clip.
Rule in forceFor the purpose of this market, previously aired content will count.event rules of Feb 8, 2026
Kalshi listed Trump’s Christmas Eve 2025 calls with service members. Earlier that evening he took NORAD Santa-tracker calls from children and talked about tracking Santa, as NBC News reported; the calls with service members followed. Santa settled NO, while Tariff and China settled YES.
Takeaway Only the appearance named in the rules counts, even when a related one runs just before it the same evening. Before paying a high price for a word you heard, check which part of the evening it came from.
Rule in forceAdditional content not included in the original broadcast or stream will not count.event rules of Dec 24, 2025