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Mark Carney makes a defense announcement

What will Mark Carney say during his defense announcement?

Held

Thu, Jul 16

11:45 AM ET /

Carney

Speech / announcement

Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now JD Vance +2 later

5 said 7 not said of 12 words

Not held 0 of 21 past Carney events, 0 of 14 speeches / announcements

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Carney events Speeches / announcements Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore66¢ All10/14 71% Speeches / announcements4/8 50% Y N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore50¢ All4/10 40% Speeches / announcements2/5 40% N N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore74¢ All— Speeches / announcements— —
YES Before startBefore37¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / announcements— Y
NO Before startBefore17¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / announcements— N
NO Before startBefore23¢ All0/10 0% Speeches / announcements0/6 0% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore84¢ All7/11 64% Speeches / announcements4/7 57% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore38¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / announcements— N
YES Before startBefore31¢ All4/15 27% Speeches / announcements2/10 20% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore65¢ All4/9 44% Speeches / announcements1/5 20% N N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore21¢ All6/17 35% Speeches / announcements5/11 45% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore28¢ All5/20 25% Speeches / announcements2/14 14% Y N N Y Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Carney events where the word was a market.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / announcements. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Mark Carney says {word} as part of The Prime Minister will announce new measures to strengthen Canada’s defence capabilities, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the The Prime Minister will announce new measures to strengthen Canada’s defence capabilities will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the The Prime Minister will announce new measures to strengthen Canada’s defence capabilities will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Mark Carney speaking in an official capacity. If Mark Carney is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

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