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Melania makes an announcement in the Rose Garden

What will Melania say during her announcement?

Held

Mon, Oct 19

11:00 AM ET /

Melania

Speech / announcement

Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now Adobe General Politics +2 later

5 said 8 not said of 13 words

Not held 1 of 18 past Melania events, 1 of 14 speeches / announcements

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Melania events Speeches / announcements Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore14¢ All8/15 53% Speeches / announcements6/11 55% N Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore17¢ All2/7 29% Speeches / announcements2/5 40% N N Y N N
YES Before startBefore65¢ All2/17 12% Speeches / announcements2/13 15% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore21¢ All4/5 80% Speeches / announcements3/4 75% small n Y N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore36¢ All5/8 63% Speeches / announcements3/6 50% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore31¢ All4/8 50% Speeches / announcements3/6 50% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore3¢ All— Speeches / announcements— —
NO Before startBefore6¢ All— Speeches / announcements— —
NO Before startBefore13¢ All1/6 17% Speeches / announcements1/3 33% small n N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore35¢ All5/9 56% Speeches / announcements4/7 57% Y N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore10¢ All1/4 25% Speeches / announcements0/2 0% small n N N N Y
YES Before startBefore70¢ All— Speeches / announcements— —
NO Before startBefore9¢ All2/8 25% Speeches / announcements2/7 29% N N N Y N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Melania events where the word was a market.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / announcements. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Melania Trump says {word} as part of Executive Order Signing Ceremony and Announcement originally scheduled for October 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the Executive Order Signing Ceremony and Announcement originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Executive Order Signing Ceremony and Announcement originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
Melania Trump speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

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