Case library

A case is a settled market worth learning from: what was said, how Kalshi settled it and the rule behind the result. The results come from Kalshi’s data. The reasons come from public sources or from traders’ reports; each case says which.

Confirmed the result is in Kalshi’s data and a public source confirms the reason.
Outcome only the result is in Kalshi’s data; the reason comes from traders’ reports and no public source confirms it.
Rule text no dispute: a clause of the rules worth knowing.

All topics 9 Plural and possessive 1 Slash alternatives 0 Compounds 0 Other word forms 2 Numbers 1 Recordings and clips 1 What part counts 4 Events that do not qualify 2 Dates and deadlines 1 Sources and rule changes 1

All speakers 2 Trump 2 Press Secretary 0 JD Vance 1 Zohran Mamdani 0 Bernie Sanders 1 Other speakers 0

2 cases

Since March 2026 a closed or cancelled event pays the “Event does not qualify” market

Mar 31, 2026 Confirmed Trump, JD Vance, Bernie Sanders

Events Trump attends Chicago Opening Night, Trump holds working Lunch with G7 Leaders, Trump holds meeting with Netanyahu, JD Vance holds a press conference, Bernie speaks at Fighting Oligarchy rally in Amarillo

Words Event does not qualify

Trump attends Chicago Opening Night

Event does not qualify Yes

Trump holds working Lunch with G7 Leaders

Event does not qualify Yes

Trump holds meeting with Netanyahu

Event does not qualify Yes

JD Vance holds a press conference

Event does not qualify Yes

Bernie speaks at Fighting Oligarchy rally in Amarillo

Event does not qualify Yes

Since mid-March 2026 most person events carry an extra market, “Event does not qualify”. It is not a word anyone has to say: it settles YES when the event is cancelled, not broadcast or otherwise fails the rules, and then every word settles NO. In our data 14 events had ended this way by late October 2026, among them Chicago Opening Night, a G7 working lunch, the meeting with Netanyahu on Jul 28 and a Bernie Sanders rally in Amarillo. We have not checked why each of them failed to qualify.

Takeaway This market prices the risk that an event is closed or cancelled, so look at it before buying words on a meeting with uncertain press access. Under the current terms a partial broadcast settles it NO, and the words said in that part count.

Rule in force "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. event rules of Mar 31, 2026

Events that do not qualify

A meeting closed to the press settled every word NO

Nov 10, 2025 Confirmed Trump

Events Trump holds bilateral meeting with the President of Syria

Words Middle East, Biden, Sanction, Negotiate / Negotiation

Trump’s Oval Office meeting with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa on Nov 10, 2025 was closed to the press, as the Associated Press reported. There was no broadcast to count from, and all 24 word markets settled NO. The event had no “Event does not qualify” market; its rules said a closed event resolves to NO.

Takeaway From late September 2025 to early March 2026, a closed-press event meant NO on every word. Since mid-March 2026 the same situation pays a separate “Event does not qualify” market (C04).

Rule in force If this event is not opened to the press... this market will resolve to no. event rules of Nov 10, 2025

Events that do not qualify