mentions

National Christmas Tree Lighting

What will Trump say during the National Christmas Tree Lighting?

Held

Thu, Dec 4

6:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks on Lighting the National Christmas Tree

Transcribe Kalshi Ask AI about this event
Also now Trump +2 later

8 said 11 not said of 19 words

Not held 8 of 102 past Trump events, 4 of 57 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 223 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore36¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies46/223 21% —
NO Before startBefore40¢ All71/83 86% Speeches / ceremonies40/47 85% Official speeches / ceremonies147/223 66% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore30¢ All33/55 60% Speeches / ceremonies19/32 59% Official speeches / ceremonies119/223 53% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore34¢ All31/40 78% Speeches / ceremonies18/24 75% Official speeches / ceremonies112/223 50% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore31¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies15/223 7% Y
YES Before startBefore38¢ All35/60 58% Speeches / ceremonies25/33 76% Official speeches / ceremonies77/223 35% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore12¢ All7/22 32% Speeches / ceremonies2/9 22% Official speeches / ceremonies31/223 14% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore22¢ All18/33 55% Speeches / ceremonies12/17 71% Official speeches / ceremonies85/223 38% N N Y N N
YES Before startBefore86¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies4/223 2% —
YES Before startBefore92¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies22/223 10% N
YES Before startBefore95¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies1/223 0% —
YES Before startBefore76¢ All2/2 100% Speeches / ceremonies2/2 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies123/223 55% Y Y
YES Before startBefore55¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies6/223 3% —
YES Before startBefore75¢ All12/14 86% Speeches / ceremonies7/8 88% Official speeches / ceremonies77/223 35% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore18¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies0/223 0% —
NO Before startBefore15¢ All1/4 25% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies20/223 9% N N N Y
NO Before startBefore20¢ All43/54 80% Speeches / ceremonies25/29 86% Official speeches / ceremonies124/223 56% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore35¢ All3/3 100% Speeches / ceremonies3/3 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies22/223 10% Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore22¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies26/223 12% —

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of National Christmas Tree Lighting, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the National Christmas Tree Lighting will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the National Christmas Tree Lighting will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details. If this event is not opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event this market will resolve to no.

Cases

All cases of this speaker