mentions

What will Trump say during his rally at the Iowa State Fairgrounds?

Held

Time TBA

Trump

Rally

Transcribe Kalshi Ask AI about this event
Also now Bernie Sanders Trump +2 later

22 said 8 not said of 30 words

Not held 2 of 20 past Trump events, 0 of 1 rally

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Rallies Official rallies · 0 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore— All— Rallies— Official rallies— —
NO Before startBefore— All1/2 50% Rallies— Official rallies— Y N
YES Before startBefore— All10/11 91% Rallies— Official rallies— Y Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore— All2/4 50% Rallies— Official rallies— N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore— All0/1 0% Rallies— Official rallies— N
YES Before startBefore— All— Rallies— Official rallies— —
YES Before startBefore— All— Rallies— Official rallies— —
YES Before startBefore— All— Rallies— Official rallies— —
YES Before startBefore— All— Rallies— Official rallies— —
NO Before startBefore— All— Rallies— Official rallies— —
YES Before startBefore— All1/2 50% Rallies— Official rallies— Y N
YES Before startBefore— All2/2 100% Rallies1/1 100% small n Official rallies— Y Y
NO Before startBefore— All— Rallies— Official rallies— —
YES Before startBefore— All— Rallies— Official rallies— —
YES Before startBefore— All— Rallies— Official rallies— —
NO Before startBefore— All— Rallies— Official rallies— —
YES Before startBefore— All— Rallies— Official rallies— —
NO Before startBefore— All1/2 50% Rallies— Official rallies— N Y
YES Before startBefore— All— Rallies— Official rallies— —
YES Before startBefore— All2/2 100% Rallies— Official rallies— Y Y
YES Before startBefore— All3/3 100% Rallies— Official rallies— Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore— All1/1 100% Rallies— Official rallies— Y
YES Before startBefore— All— Rallies— Official rallies— —
YES Before startBefore— All2/4 50% Rallies— Official rallies— Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore— All— Rallies— Official rallies— —
NO Before startBefore— All— Rallies— Official rallies— —
YES Before startBefore— All2/3 67% Rallies— Official rallies— Y N Y
NO Before startBefore— All— Rallies— Official rallies— —
YES Before startBefore— All— Rallies— Official rallies— —
YES Before startBefore— All0/5 0% Rallies— Official rallies— N N N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official rallies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Rallies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

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Special for this event

  • If the event does not occur before Jul 3, 2025, then a strike for the event not occurring will resolve to Yes and all other strikes will resolve to No.

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Trump says {word} as part of July 3 event at Iowa State Fairgrounds, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the July 3 event at Iowa State Fairgrounds will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the July 3 event at Iowa State Fairgrounds will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details. If the event does not occur before Jul 3, 2025, then a strike for the event not occurring will resolve to Yes and all other strikes will resolve to No.

Cases

All cases of this speaker