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What will Trump say during his announcement?

Held

Time TBA

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Also now Trump +1 later

11 said 9 not said of 20 words

Not held 2 of 32 past Trump events, 0 of 17 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 163 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore— All20/22 91% Speeches / ceremonies13/14 93% Official speeches / ceremonies109/163 67% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore— All8/14 57% Speeches / ceremonies4/8 50% Official speeches / ceremonies89/163 55% N Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies0/163 0% —
NO Before startBefore— All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies14/163 9% Y
YES Before startBefore— All12/14 86% Speeches / ceremonies9/11 82% Official speeches / ceremonies93/163 57% Y N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore— All1/3 33% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies17/163 10% N N Y
YES Before startBefore— All4/4 100% Speeches / ceremonies2/2 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies41/163 25% Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore— All0/4 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies15/163 9% N N N N
NO Before startBefore— All2/2 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies27/163 17% Y Y
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies39/163 24% —
YES Before startBefore— All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies20/163 12% Y N
NO Before startBefore— All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies9/163 6% Y
YES Before startBefore— All5/8 63% Speeches / ceremonies2/4 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies56/163 34% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies60/163 37% —
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies0/163 0% —
YES Before startBefore— All11/12 92% Speeches / ceremonies5/5 100% Official speeches / ceremonies90/163 55% Y N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore— All3/4 75% Speeches / ceremonies2/3 67% small n Official speeches / ceremonies71/163 44% N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies88/163 54% —
YES Before startBefore— All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies9/163 6% N
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies1/163 1% —

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Trump says {word} as part of Oval Office announcement at 4:00 PM, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Oval Office announcement at 4:00 PM will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the Oval Office announcement at 4:00 PM will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details.