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JD Vance joins The Five

What will JD Vance say during Fox News: The Five?

Held

Tue, Jun 16

5:00 PM ET /

JD Vance

Interview

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Also now Trump +2 later

6 said 11 not said of 17 words

Not held 3 of 44 past JD Vance events, 0 of 14 interviews

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Word Result Before start All JD Vance events Interviews Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore32¢ All3/6 50% Interviews1/4 25% small n Y N N N Y
NO Before startBefore30¢ All1/3 33% Interviews0/2 0% small n N N Y
NO Before startBefore62¢ All11/21 52% Interviews2/9 22% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore15¢ All3/25 12% Interviews0/7 0% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore31¢ All3/25 12% Interviews1/10 10% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore18¢ All11/17 65% Interviews2/5 40% N N Y N N
YES Before startBefore58¢ All25/36 69% Interviews9/13 69% Y N N N Y
YES Before startBefore89¢ All4/5 80% Interviews2/2 100% small n Y Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore68¢ All20/29 69% Interviews6/11 55% Y N N N Y
NO Before startBefore33¢ All7/15 47% Interviews4/7 57% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore60¢ All12/21 57% Interviews3/10 30% N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore95¢ All6/8 75% Interviews3/4 75% small n Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore67¢ All4/18 22% Interviews3/7 43% Y Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore84¢ All3/11 27% Interviews2/7 29% Y N Y N N
YES Before startBefore16¢ All1/3 33% Interviews1/3 33% small n N N Y
YES Before startBefore66¢ All10/22 45% Interviews7/10 70% N Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore67¢ All4/5 80% Interviews3/4 75% small n Y Y Y N Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past JD Vance events where the word was a market.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Interviews. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

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Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If JD Vance says {word} as part of Fox News: The Five, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Fox News: The Five will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Fox News: The Five will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
Additional content not included in the original broadcast or stream will not count.
Promotional content aired during the event will count, but advertisements will not.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on JD Vance speaking in an official capacity. If JD Vance is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker