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JD Vance delivers Air Force commencement address

What will JD Vance say during his Air Force commencement address?

Held

Thu, May 28

10:30 AM ET /

JD Vance

Speech / ceremony

Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now Trump +1 later

9 said 12 not said of 21 words

Not held 2 of 37 past JD Vance events, 2 of 21 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All JD Vance events Speeches / ceremonies Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore78¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— —
YES Before startBefore34¢ All2/20 10% Speeches / ceremonies0/12 0% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore15¢ All2/19 11% Speeches / ceremonies2/11 18% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore13¢ All23/30 77% Speeches / ceremonies12/16 75% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore62¢ All4/6 67% Speeches / ceremonies3/4 75% small n Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore17¢ All18/23 78% Speeches / ceremonies12/14 86% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore38¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n N N
NO Before startBefore59¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— —
YES Before startBefore15¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— —
NO Before startBefore13¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies— N
YES Before startBefore16¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— —
NO Before startBefore64¢ All4/5 80% Speeches / ceremonies2/3 67% small n Y Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore84¢ All2/4 50% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore13¢ All5/11 45% Speeches / ceremonies4/9 44% Y N N Y N
YES Before startBefore85¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— —
NO Before startBefore34¢ All1/3 33% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n N N Y
YES Before startBefore54¢ All2/8 25% Speeches / ceremonies0/3 0% small n Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore89¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— —
NO Before startBefore55¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— —
NO Before startBefore14¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— —
YES Before startBefore8¢ All1/3 33% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n N N Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past JD Vance events where the word was a market.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If JD Vance says {word} as part of Commencement Address at the U.S. Air Force Academy, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Commencement Address at the U.S. Air Force Academy will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Commencement Address at the U.S. Air Force Academy will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on JD Vance speaking in an official capacity. If JD Vance is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker