mentions

JD Vance delivers remarks in Des Moines

What will JD Vance say during his remarks in Des Moines?

Held

Tue, May 5

3:00 PM ET /

JD Vance

Speech / ceremony

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Also now Trump +2 later

13 said 13 not said of 26 words

Not held 1 of 28 past JD Vance events, 1 of 15 speeches / ceremonies

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Word Result Before start All JD Vance events Speeches / ceremonies Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore74¢ All4/9 44% Speeches / ceremonies3/4 75% small n N Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore20¢ All1/13 8% Speeches / ceremonies0/8 0% N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore30¢ All2/15 13% Speeches / ceremonies2/8 25% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore83¢ All9/10 90% Speeches / ceremonies7/8 88% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore91¢ All17/23 74% Speeches / ceremonies8/11 73% Y Y N N N
YES Before startBefore52¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Y
YES Before startBefore58¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Y
YES Before startBefore96¢ All12/17 71% Speeches / ceremonies8/10 80% N Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore86¢ All4/8 50% Speeches / ceremonies2/4 50% small n N Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore9¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n N N
YES Before startBefore90¢ All6/10 60% Speeches / ceremonies4/4 100% small n Y Y N N N
NO Before startBefore11¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n N
NO Before startBefore30¢ All0/3 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n N N N
YES Before startBefore87¢ All8/11 73% Speeches / ceremonies3/5 60% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore12¢ All1/8 13% Speeches / ceremonies0/3 0% small n N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore83¢ All3/7 43% Speeches / ceremonies2/6 33% N Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore66¢ All4/6 67% Speeches / ceremonies2/3 67% small n Y N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore60¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n N N
NO Before startBefore38¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Y
NO Before startBefore14¢ All3/8 38% Speeches / ceremonies2/5 40% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore47¢ All6/8 75% Speeches / ceremonies2/3 67% small n Y N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore39¢ All4/14 29% Speeches / ceremonies1/8 13% N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore33¢ All5/10 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/4 25% small n N Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore8¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n N
NO Before startBefore8¢ All1/3 33% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n N Y N
NO Before startBefore36¢ All2/3 67% Speeches / ceremonies2/2 100% small n N Y Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past JD Vance events where the word was a market.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

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Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If JD Vance says {word} as part of remarks at a manufacturing facility - Des Moines, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the remarks at a manufacturing facility - Des Moines will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the remarks at a manufacturing facility - Des Moines will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on JD Vance speaking in an official capacity. If JD Vance is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker