mentions

JD Vance speaks in Fairbanks

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska?

Held

Mon, Oct 5

9:40 PM ET /

JD Vance

Rally

Transcribe Kalshi Ask AI about this event
Also now Trump +2 later

9 said 18 not said of 27 words

Not held 3 of 68 past JD Vance events, 0 of 4 rallies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All JD Vance events Rallies Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore71¢ All12/26 46% Rallies4/4 100% small n Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore67¢ All24/43 56% Rallies2/4 50% small n Y N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore16¢ All7/44 16% Rallies0/4 0% small n N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore19¢ All5/43 12% Rallies1/4 25% small n N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore29¢ All14/28 50% Rallies1/4 25% small n N N Y N N
YES Before startBefore91¢ All41/59 69% Rallies4/4 100% small n Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore38¢ All10/20 50% Rallies1/4 25% small n N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore96¢ All36/46 78% Rallies4/4 100% small n Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore66¢ All— Rallies— —
YES Before startBefore72¢ All6/12 50% Rallies3/4 75% small n Y Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore84¢ All20/35 57% Rallies4/4 100% small n Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore69¢ All2/5 40% Rallies2/3 67% small n Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore82¢ All23/39 59% Rallies1/2 50% small n Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore66¢ All17/32 53% Rallies2/3 67% small n Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore70¢ All26/39 67% Rallies4/4 100% small n Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore53¢ All11/18 61% Rallies2/4 50% small n Y Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore66¢ All— Rallies— —
NO Before startBefore9¢ All0/11 0% Rallies0/4 0% small n N N N N N
NO Before startBefore55¢ All1/4 25% Rallies1/4 25% small n N Y N N
YES Before startBefore86¢ All12/31 39% Rallies0/4 0% small n N N N N N
NO Before startBefore87¢ All— Rallies— —
NO Before startBefore68¢ All3/24 13% Rallies3/4 75% small n Y Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore58¢ All2/2 100% Rallies— Y Y
NO Before startBefore86¢ All3/3 100% Rallies3/3 100% small n Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore25¢ All8/28 29% Rallies0/3 0% small n N N N N N
NO Before startBefore92¢ All12/13 92% Rallies4/4 100% small n Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore68¢ All7/18 39% Rallies4/4 100% small n Y Y Y Y N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past JD Vance events where the word was a market.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Rallies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Special for this event

  • Additional content not included in the original broadcast or stream.

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If JD Vance says {word} as part of Midterm Rally in Fairbanks, Alaska originally scheduled for October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the Midterm Rally in Fairbanks, Alaska originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Midterm Rally in Fairbanks, Alaska originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
JD Vance speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Additional content not included in the original broadcast or stream.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker