mentions

JD Vance speaks at RNC Midterm Convention

What will JD Vance say during RNC Convention?

Held

Thu, Sep 10

9:00 PM ET /

JD Vance

Speech / ceremony

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Also now Trump +2 later

11 said 11 not said of 22 words

Not held 3 of 59 past JD Vance events, 2 of 28 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All JD Vance events Speeches / ceremonies Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore60¢ All6/17 35% Speeches / ceremonies2/4 50% small n Y N N N Y
YES Before startBefore64¢ All18/34 53% Speeches / ceremonies10/14 71% Y N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore10¢ All6/35 17% Speeches / ceremonies2/17 12% Y Y N N N
NO Before startBefore37¢ All4/35 11% Speeches / ceremonies3/17 18% N N Y N N
YES Before startBefore76¢ All12/22 55% Speeches / ceremonies10/13 77% N N Y N N
YES Before startBefore81¢ All32/50 64% Speeches / ceremonies17/23 74% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore60¢ All8/12 67% Speeches / ceremonies5/8 63% Y N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore97¢ All27/37 73% Speeches / ceremonies15/19 79% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore73¢ All12/27 44% Speeches / ceremonies6/11 55% Y Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore84¢ All18/33 55% Speeches / ceremonies9/12 75% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore29¢ All0/4 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/4 0% small n N N N N
NO Before startBefore35¢ All1/8 13% Speeches / ceremonies1/6 17% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore79¢ All20/31 65% Speeches / ceremonies9/14 64% Y Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore20¢ All6/29 21% Speeches / ceremonies0/10 0% N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore21¢ All0/5 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/4 0% small n N N N N N
YES Before startBefore70¢ All8/16 50% Speeches / ceremonies6/13 46% Y N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore55¢ All12/23 52% Speeches / ceremonies4/9 44% Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore16¢ All0/18 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/9 0% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore78¢ All2/3 67% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n N Y Y
NO Before startBefore54¢ All8/23 35% Speeches / ceremonies4/14 29% Y N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore83¢ All6/6 100% Speeches / ceremonies6/6 100% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore56¢ All2/11 18% Speeches / ceremonies1/7 14% Y N N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past JD Vance events where the word was a market.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If JD Vance says {word} as part of RNC Midterm Convention, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the RNC Midterm Convention using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the RNC Midterm Convention will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
JD Vance speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker