mentions

JD Vance speaks in Harlingen

What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas?

Held

Wed, Sep 30

1:00 PM ET /

JD Vance

Rally

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Also now Trump +2 later

14 said 13 not said of 27 words

Not held 3 of 65 past JD Vance events, 0 of 2 rallies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All JD Vance events Rallies Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore65¢ All9/23 39% Rallies2/2 100% small n N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore65¢ All23/40 58% Rallies2/2 100% small n Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore25¢ All7/41 17% Rallies0/2 0% small n Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore6¢ All5/40 13% Rallies1/2 50% small n Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore70¢ All14/26 54% Rallies1/2 50% small n Y N N Y N
YES Before startBefore88¢ All38/56 68% Rallies2/2 100% small n Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore85¢ All8/16 50% Rallies— N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore48¢ All10/17 59% Rallies1/2 50% small n N Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore99¢ All33/43 77% Rallies2/2 100% small n Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore39¢ All4/10 40% Rallies1/2 50% small n Y N N N Y
YES Before startBefore88¢ All17/32 53% Rallies2/2 100% small n Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore21¢ All1/3 33% Rallies1/1 100% small n Y N N
NO Before startBefore88¢ All21/36 58% Rallies— Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore85¢ All15/29 52% Rallies1/1 100% small n Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore33¢ All0/4 0% Rallies0/1 0% small n N N N N
NO Before startBefore32¢ All2/12 17% Rallies1/2 50% small n Y N N N Y
YES Before startBefore72¢ All23/36 64% Rallies2/2 100% small n Y Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore45¢ All8/15 53% Rallies0/2 0% small n N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore10¢ All0/9 0% Rallies0/2 0% small n N N N N N
YES Before startBefore85¢ All0/2 0% Rallies0/2 0% small n N N
NO Before startBefore41¢ All12/28 43% Rallies0/2 0% small n N N N N N
YES Before startBefore35¢ All1/22 5% Rallies1/2 50% small n Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore70¢ All1/1 100% Rallies1/1 100% small n Y
YES Before startBefore82¢ All— Rallies— —
NO Before startBefore17¢ All8/26 31% Rallies0/1 0% small n N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore86¢ All10/11 91% Rallies2/2 100% small n Y Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore44¢ All5/16 31% Rallies2/2 100% small n Y Y N N Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past JD Vance events where the word was a market.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Rallies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If JD Vance says {word} as part of Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
JD Vance speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker