mentions

JD Vance speaks in Monroe

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan?

Held

Thu, Oct 15

2:45 PM ET /

JD Vance

Rally

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Also now Trump Trump +1 later

8 said 22 not said of 30 words

Not held 3 of 70 past JD Vance events, 0 of 6 rallies

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Word Result Before start All JD Vance events Rallies Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore90¢ All14/28 50% Rallies6/6 100% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore63¢ All25/45 56% Rallies3/6 50% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore10¢ All7/46 15% Rallies0/6 0% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore30¢ All6/45 13% Rallies2/6 33% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore56¢ All15/30 50% Rallies2/6 33% Y N N N Y
YES Before startBefore87¢ All— Rallies— —
NO Before startBefore94¢ All43/61 70% Rallies6/6 100% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore85¢ All10/18 56% Rallies2/2 100% small n Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore27¢ All0/1 0% Rallies— N
NO Before startBefore30¢ All10/22 45% Rallies1/6 17% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore98¢ All38/48 79% Rallies6/6 100% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore79¢ All8/14 57% Rallies5/6 83% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore93¢ All22/37 59% Rallies6/6 100% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore22¢ All— Rallies— —
NO Before startBefore22¢ All2/7 29% Rallies2/5 40% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore62¢ All— Rallies— —
YES Before startBefore83¢ All24/41 59% Rallies2/4 50% small n Y N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore45¢ All17/34 50% Rallies2/5 40% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore75¢ All27/41 66% Rallies5/6 83% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore63¢ All12/20 60% Rallies3/6 50% Y N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore19¢ All0/13 0% Rallies0/6 0% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore80¢ All2/6 33% Rallies2/6 33% Y N N Y N
NO Before startBefore31¢ All13/33 39% Rallies1/6 17% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore43¢ All3/26 12% Rallies3/6 50% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore14¢ All3/6 50% Rallies0/3 0% small n N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore84¢ All4/5 80% Rallies4/5 80% Y N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore35¢ All3/5 60% Rallies1/1 100% small n Y N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore52¢ All9/30 30% Rallies1/5 20% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore84¢ All13/15 87% Rallies5/6 83% Y N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore62¢ All7/20 35% Rallies4/6 67% N N Y Y Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past JD Vance events where the word was a market.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Rallies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If JD Vance says {word} as part of Midterm Rally in Monroe, Michigan originally scheduled for October 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the Midterm Rally in Monroe, Michigan originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Midterm Rally in Monroe, Michigan originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
JD Vance speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker