mentions

JD Vance delivers remarks in Maine

What will JD Vance say during his remarks in Maine?

Held

Mon, Aug 24

10:00 AM ET /

JD Vance

Speech / ceremony

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Also now Trump +2 later

17 said 10 not said of 27 words

Not held 3 of 56 past JD Vance events, 2 of 26 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All JD Vance events Speeches / ceremonies Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore90¢ All16/31 52% Speeches / ceremonies9/12 75% Y Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore14¢ All3/32 9% Speeches / ceremonies2/15 13% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore88¢ All29/47 62% Speeches / ceremonies15/21 71% Y N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore90¢ All7/14 50% Speeches / ceremonies6/10 60% Y N N N Y
YES Before startBefore63¢ All6/9 67% Speeches / ceremonies4/6 67% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore98¢ All24/34 71% Speeches / ceremonies13/17 76% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore60¢ All1/3 33% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n N Y N
NO Before startBefore87¢ All10/24 42% Speeches / ceremonies5/9 56% Y N N N Y
YES Before startBefore77¢ All15/30 50% Speeches / ceremonies7/10 70% N Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore15¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n N
YES Before startBefore58¢ All9/22 41% Speeches / ceremonies4/9 44% Y N Y N N
YES Before startBefore62¢ All17/28 61% Speeches / ceremonies7/12 58% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore52¢ All7/9 78% Speeches / ceremonies5/6 83% Y Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore77¢ All5/7 71% Speeches / ceremonies3/5 60% Y N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore36¢ All9/11 82% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore39¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Y
NO Before startBefore20¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n N N
YES Before startBefore83¢ All6/13 46% Speeches / ceremonies5/11 45% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore34¢ All10/20 50% Speeches / ceremonies3/7 43% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore17¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— —
YES Before startBefore34¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Y
YES Before startBefore16¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Y
YES Before startBefore73¢ All6/20 30% Speeches / ceremonies3/12 25% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore59¢ All4/4 100% Speeches / ceremonies4/4 100% small n Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore14¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— —
YES Before startBefore89¢ All7/11 64% Speeches / ceremonies2/2 100% small n Y N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore18¢ All1/8 13% Speeches / ceremonies1/5 20% N N N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past JD Vance events where the word was a market.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

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Special for this event

  • Video of the remarks at a manufacturing facility in Maine using the live broadcast or stream.
  • If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the remarks at a manufacturing facility in Maine will be used.
  • The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
  • Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
  • JD Vance speaking in an official capacity.
  • For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.
  • Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
  • Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If JD Vance says {word} as part of remarks at a manufacturing facility in Maine, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the remarks at a manufacturing facility in Maine using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the remarks at a manufacturing facility in Maine will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
JD Vance speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker