mentions

JD Vance speaks in Belgrade

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Montana?

Held

Mon, Oct 26

1:40 PM ET /

JD Vance

Rally

Transcribe Kalshi Ask AI about this event
Also now Trump +2 later

12 said 13 not said of 25 words

Not held 3 of 75 past JD Vance events, 0 of 8 rallies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All JD Vance events Rallies Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore74¢ All18/32 56% Rallies8/8 100% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore52¢ All28/49 57% Rallies5/8 63% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore— All8/51 16% Rallies0/8 0% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore— All6/50 12% Rallies2/8 25% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore21¢ All15/33 45% Rallies2/8 25% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore85¢ All45/66 68% Rallies7/8 88% N N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore69¢ All11/20 55% Rallies3/4 75% small n Y N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore— All11/26 42% Rallies1/8 13% N N Y N N
YES Before startBefore— All1/1 100% Rallies1/1 100% small n Y
NO Before startBefore47¢ All8/18 44% Rallies5/8 63% N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore39¢ All— Rallies— —
YES Before startBefore50¢ All27/45 60% Rallies3/6 50% Y N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore26¢ All18/39 46% Rallies3/7 43% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore56¢ All29/45 64% Rallies6/8 75% N Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore38¢ All12/23 52% Rallies3/8 38% N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore22¢ All0/15 0% Rallies0/8 0% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore36¢ All2/8 25% Rallies2/8 25% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore15¢ All7/13 54% Rallies— Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore25¢ All15/36 42% Rallies2/8 25% Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore21¢ All3/29 10% Rallies3/8 38% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore20¢ All3/9 33% Rallies0/5 0% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore44¢ All5/7 71% Rallies5/7 71% Y N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore— All9/33 27% Rallies1/7 14% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore38¢ All14/17 82% Rallies6/8 75% Y N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore43¢ All8/24 33% Rallies5/8 63% N N N Y N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past JD Vance events where the word was a market.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Rallies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If JD Vance says {word} as part of Midterm Rally in Belgrade, Montana originally scheduled for October 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the Midterm Rally in Belgrade, Montana originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Midterm Rally in Belgrade, Montana originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
JD Vance speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker