Presidential Turkey Pardon

What will Trump say during the Turkey Pardon Ceremony?

Held

Tue, Nov 25

12:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks at the Thanksgiving Turkey Presentation Ceremony

Also now Trump +2 later

12 said 10 not said of 22 words

Not held 8 of 95 past Trump events, 4 of 54 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 220 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore55¢ All2/4 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies15/220 7% Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore29¢ All4/16 25% Speeches / ceremonies3/9 33% Official speeches / ceremonies37/220 17% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore52¢ All65/77 84% Speeches / ceremonies38/45 84% Official speeches / ceremonies144/220 65% Y Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore15¢ All6/11 55% Speeches / ceremonies4/7 57% Official speeches / ceremonies49/220 22% N Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore30¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies6/220 3% —
YES Before startBefore33¢ All2/5 40% Speeches / ceremonies1/4 25% small n Official speeches / ceremonies35/220 16% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore49¢ All23/34 68% Speeches / ceremonies14/21 67% Official speeches / ceremonies126/220 57% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore25¢ All5/11 45% Speeches / ceremonies2/7 29% Official speeches / ceremonies67/220 30% Y N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore95¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies0/220 0% —
NO Before startBefore53¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies38/220 17% Y
YES Before startBefore30¢ All29/54 54% Speeches / ceremonies22/30 73% Official speeches / ceremonies75/220 34% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore45¢ All8/14 57% Speeches / ceremonies6/9 67% Official speeches / ceremonies74/220 34% N Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore66¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies38/220 17% —
NO Before startBefore17¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies3/220 1% —
YES Before startBefore15¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies56/220 25% —
NO Before startBefore10¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies21/220 10% —
NO Before startBefore16¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies0/220 0% —
NO Before startBefore24¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies0/220 0% —
NO Before startBefore29¢ All38/47 81% Speeches / ceremonies23/26 88% Official speeches / ceremonies122/220 55% Y N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore87¢ All7/14 50% Speeches / ceremonies4/5 80% Official speeches / ceremonies121/220 55% Y N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore94¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies0/220 0% —
YES Before startBefore53¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies10/220 5% Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Turkey Pardon Ceremony, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Turkey Pardon Ceremony will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the Turkey Pardon Ceremony will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details.