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Trump holds Midterm Rally in Kalispell, Montana

What will Trump say during his rally in Montana?

Held

Wed, Oct 14

8:15 PM ET /

Trump

Rally

Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now +1 later

16 said 23 not said of 39 words

Not held 27 of 352 past Trump events, 0 of 15 rallies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Rallies Official rallies · 5 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore94¢ All28/96 29% Rallies9/10 90% Official rallies3/5 60% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore34¢ All59/166 36% Rallies4/12 33% Official rallies0/5 0% Y N N N Y
NO Before startBefore25¢ All25/84 30% Rallies6/14 43% Official rallies3/5 60% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore85¢ All34/82 41% Rallies8/12 67% Official rallies1/5 20% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore42¢ All8/23 35% Rallies2/7 29% Official rallies1/5 20% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore3¢ All9/92 10% Rallies0/10 0% Official rallies0/5 0% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore91¢ All17/35 49% Rallies10/13 77% Official rallies3/5 60% Y Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore87¢ All61/94 65% Rallies8/10 80% Official rallies4/5 80% Y Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore91¢ All4/6 67% Rallies— Official rallies0/5 0% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore43¢ All— Rallies— Official rallies0/5 0% —
NO Before startBefore1¢ All9/228 4% Rallies0/13 0% Official rallies0/5 0% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore8¢ All2/20 10% Rallies1/9 11% Official rallies0/5 0% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore10¢ All2/12 17% Rallies0/9 0% Official rallies1/5 20% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore96¢ All13/22 59% Rallies9/9 100% Official rallies1/5 20% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore45¢ All12/43 28% Rallies6/14 43% Official rallies1/5 20% Y N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore22¢ All12/43 28% Rallies3/11 27% Official rallies2/5 40% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore98¢ All— Rallies— Official rallies2/5 40% —
NO Before startBefore14¢ All0/4 0% Rallies0/4 0% small n Official rallies0/5 0% N N N N
NO Before startBefore25¢ All10/21 48% Rallies5/8 63% Official rallies2/5 40% Y N N N Y
YES Before startBefore97¢ All31/52 60% Rallies10/12 83% Official rallies3/5 60% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore55¢ All27/78 35% Rallies5/10 50% Official rallies2/5 40% Y N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore73¢ All13/35 37% Rallies9/10 90% Official rallies3/5 60% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore66¢ All14/22 64% Rallies7/10 70% Official rallies2/5 40% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore26¢ All46/99 46% Rallies3/8 38% Official rallies1/5 20% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore75¢ All9/22 41% Rallies6/9 67% Official rallies2/5 40% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore85¢ All10/18 56% Rallies8/9 89% Official rallies1/5 20% Y Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore98¢ All75/114 66% Rallies10/11 91% Official rallies4/5 80% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore7¢ All1/6 17% Rallies1/6 17% Official rallies0/5 0% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore2¢ All2/18 11% Rallies0/6 0% Official rallies1/5 20% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore10¢ All— Rallies— Official rallies0/5 0% —
YES Before startBefore39¢ All— Rallies— Official rallies0/5 0% —
NO Before startBefore62¢ All9/17 53% Rallies6/10 60% Official rallies3/5 60% Y N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore27¢ All7/14 50% Rallies4/9 44% Official rallies2/5 40% N N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore95¢ All35/63 56% Rallies10/11 91% Official rallies3/5 60% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore93¢ All18/36 50% Rallies8/12 67% Official rallies3/5 60% Y Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore68¢ All34/76 45% Rallies8/13 62% Official rallies3/5 60% Y Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore98¢ All50/123 41% Rallies12/13 92% Official rallies4/5 80% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore4¢ All2/14 14% Rallies0/8 0% Official rallies1/5 20% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore3¢ All9/26 35% Rallies0/9 0% Official rallies1/5 20% N N N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official rallies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Rallies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Midterm Rally in Kalispell, Montana originally scheduled for October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the Midterm Rally in Kalispell, Montana originally scheduled for October 14, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Midterm Rally in Kalispell, Montana originally scheduled for October 14, 2026 will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker