mentions

Trump makes Announcement on the Ratepayer Protections

What will Trump say during his Announcement on the Ratepayer Protections?

Held

Thu, Jul 23

2:30 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks in a Roundtable Discussion on the Ratepayer Protection Pledge

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Also now Trump +2 later

19 said 14 not said of 33 words

Not held 24 of 278 past Trump events, 11 of 157 speeches / ceremonies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 360 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore61¢ All8/40 20% Speeches / ceremonies8/24 33% Official speeches / ceremonies58/360 16% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore27¢ All18/46 39% Speeches / ceremonies11/25 44% Official speeches / ceremonies40/360 11% Y Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore72¢ All170/230 74% Speeches / ceremonies95/132 72% Official speeches / ceremonies229/360 64% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore87¢ All23/32 72% Speeches / ceremonies15/20 75% Official speeches / ceremonies191/360 53% N Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore66¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies30/360 8% N
YES Before startBefore58¢ All12/30 40% Speeches / ceremonies8/14 57% Official speeches / ceremonies45/360 13% Y N N Y N
YES Before startBefore9¢ All7/168 4% Speeches / ceremonies6/99 6% Official speeches / ceremonies18/360 5% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore97¢ All0/3 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/3 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies9/360 3% N N N
NO Before startBefore72¢ All106/152 70% Speeches / ceremonies57/86 66% Official speeches / ceremonies194/360 54% N Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore21¢ All8/20 40% Speeches / ceremonies5/15 33% Official speeches / ceremonies35/360 10% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore47¢ All7/21 33% Speeches / ceremonies4/10 40% Official speeches / ceremonies12/360 3% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore63¢ All66/96 69% Speeches / ceremonies43/60 72% Official speeches / ceremonies217/360 60% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore30¢ All2/10 20% Speeches / ceremonies1/8 13% Official speeches / ceremonies41/360 11% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore17¢ All3/3 100% Speeches / ceremonies3/3 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies6/360 2% Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore78¢ All3/4 75% Speeches / ceremonies3/4 75% small n Official speeches / ceremonies67/360 19% Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore52¢ All41/71 58% Speeches / ceremonies23/40 58% Official speeches / ceremonies130/360 36% Y Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore89¢ All18/32 56% Speeches / ceremonies12/21 57% Official speeches / ceremonies120/360 33% N N Y N N
YES Before startBefore38¢ All3/5 60% Speeches / ceremonies3/5 60% Official speeches / ceremonies32/360 9% Y N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore27¢ All6/24 25% Speeches / ceremonies3/17 18% Official speeches / ceremonies21/360 6% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore20¢ All16/52 31% Speeches / ceremonies6/23 26% Official speeches / ceremonies25/360 7% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore51¢ All110/204 54% Speeches / ceremonies79/118 67% Official speeches / ceremonies145/360 40% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore89¢ All8/9 89% Speeches / ceremonies3/3 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies170/360 47% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore42¢ All26/31 84% Speeches / ceremonies11/14 79% Official speeches / ceremonies96/360 27% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore24¢ All4/9 44% Speeches / ceremonies3/8 38% Official speeches / ceremonies42/360 12% N Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore84¢ All86/118 73% Speeches / ceremonies44/65 68% Official speeches / ceremonies147/360 41% N Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore77¢ All52/80 65% Speeches / ceremonies25/43 58% Official speeches / ceremonies139/360 39% Y Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore43¢ All28/60 47% Speeches / ceremonies17/35 49% Official speeches / ceremonies91/360 25% Y Y N N N
NO Before startBefore48¢ All2/2 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies111/360 31% Y Y
NO Before startBefore27¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies3/360 1% N N
NO Before startBefore49¢ All59/107 55% Speeches / ceremonies35/60 58% Official speeches / ceremonies102/360 28% Y N N Y N
YES Before startBefore16¢ All25/77 32% Speeches / ceremonies16/48 33% Official speeches / ceremonies78/360 22% Y N N Y N
YES Before startBefore41¢ All21/28 75% Speeches / ceremonies14/19 74% Official speeches / ceremonies113/360 31% Y Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore68¢ All5/19 26% Speeches / ceremonies2/12 17% Official speeches / ceremonies22/360 6% N N N Y N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

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Special for this event

  • Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify — Donald Trump must be speaking in an official capacity for the Contract to resolve Yes (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, or unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic, do not qualify).

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Announcement on the Ratepayer Protection Pledge, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Announcement on the Ratepayer Protection Pledge will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Announcement on the Ratepayer Protection Pledge will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify — Donald Trump must be speaking in an official capacity for the Contract to resolve Yes (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, or unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic, do not qualify).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker