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Trump makes an announcement in the Oval Office

What will Trump say during his announcement?

Held

Wed, Oct 7

1:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now +1 later

10 said 17 not said of 27 words

Not held 27 of 345 past Trump events, 12 of 196 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 403 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore49¢ All23/90 26% Speeches / ceremonies17/51 33% Official speeches / ceremonies67/403 17% Y Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore53¢ All57/160 36% Speeches / ceremonies39/90 43% Official speeches / ceremonies123/403 31% Y Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore74¢ All209/288 73% Speeches / ceremonies119/168 71% Official speeches / ceremonies253/403 63% N Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore38¢ All7/17 41% Speeches / ceremonies2/8 25% Official speeches / ceremonies29/403 7% Y Y N N N
YES Before startBefore65¢ All56/88 64% Speeches / ceremonies36/53 68% Official speeches / ceremonies215/403 53% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore8¢ All9/222 4% Speeches / ceremonies7/131 5% Official speeches / ceremonies19/403 5% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore75¢ All15/16 94% Speeches / ceremonies3/4 75% small n Official speeches / ceremonies300/403 74% Y N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore8¢ All11/37 30% Speeches / ceremonies6/21 29% Official speeches / ceremonies54/403 13% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore27¢ All26/46 57% Speeches / ceremonies17/30 57% Official speeches / ceremonies64/403 16% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore61¢ All134/259 52% Speeches / ceremonies97/151 64% Official speeches / ceremonies163/403 40% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore65¢ All24/44 55% Speeches / ceremonies17/27 63% Official speeches / ceremonies142/403 35% Y Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore91¢ All17/23 74% Speeches / ceremonies11/15 73% Official speeches / ceremonies193/403 48% Y Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore78¢ All44/59 75% Speeches / ceremonies21/32 66% Official speeches / ceremonies114/403 28% N Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore63¢ All44/93 47% Speeches / ceremonies18/52 35% Official speeches / ceremonies111/403 28% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore38¢ All2/3 67% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies96/403 24% Y Y N
NO Before startBefore26¢ All6/14 43% Speeches / ceremonies6/13 46% Official speeches / ceremonies72/403 18% Y Y N N N
NO Before startBefore55¢ All4/12 33% Speeches / ceremonies4/7 57% Official speeches / ceremonies54/403 13% Y Y N N N
NO Before startBefore24¢ All17/46 37% Speeches / ceremonies6/20 30% Official speeches / ceremonies93/403 23% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore85¢ All97/135 72% Speeches / ceremonies53/79 67% Official speeches / ceremonies169/403 42% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore83¢ All70/109 64% Speeches / ceremonies38/57 67% Official speeches / ceremonies199/403 49% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore67¢ All16/26 62% Speeches / ceremonies8/13 62% Official speeches / ceremonies161/403 40% Y N N N Y
NO Before startBefore24¢ All7/8 88% Speeches / ceremonies5/6 83% Official speeches / ceremonies91/403 23% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore85¢ All82/162 51% Speeches / ceremonies47/93 51% Official speeches / ceremonies115/403 29% Y Y N N N
NO Before startBefore43¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies3/403 1% Y N
NO Before startBefore28¢ All31/70 44% Speeches / ceremonies21/46 46% Official speeches / ceremonies89/403 22% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore8¢ All3/18 17% Speeches / ceremonies2/10 20% Official speeches / ceremonies26/403 6% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore71¢ All128/197 65% Speeches / ceremonies83/119 70% Official speeches / ceremonies219/403 54% Y Y Y N Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Oval Office announcement originally scheduled for October 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the Oval Office announcement originally scheduled for October 7, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Oval Office announcement originally scheduled for October 7, 2026 will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker