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JD Vance makes an announcement in the Oval Office

What will JD Vance say during his announcement?

Held

Tue, Oct 20

1:30 PM ET /

JD Vance

Speech / ceremony

Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now +1 later

4 said 13 not said of 17 words

Not held 3 of 73 past JD Vance events, 2 of 31 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All JD Vance events Speeches / ceremonies Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore28¢ All27/48 56% Speeches / ceremonies12/17 71% Y N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore18¢ All8/49 16% Speeches / ceremonies2/20 10% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore26¢ All6/48 13% Speeches / ceremonies3/20 15% N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore15¢ All15/32 47% Speeches / ceremonies11/15 73% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore26¢ All45/64 70% Speeches / ceremonies20/26 77% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore5¢ All2/10 20% Speeches / ceremonies— N N N N N
YES Before startBefore75¢ All41/51 80% Speeches / ceremonies18/22 82% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore19¢ All8/16 50% Speeches / ceremonies2/6 33% N N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore94¢ All26/44 59% Speeches / ceremonies11/14 79% N Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore35¢ All18/37 49% Speeches / ceremonies7/13 54% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore13¢ All2/15 13% Speeches / ceremonies1/8 13% N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore95¢ All7/10 70% Speeches / ceremonies3/4 75% small n N Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore36¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies— Y
NO Before startBefore19¢ All2/5 40% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n N N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore87¢ All2/3 67% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Y N Y
NO Before startBefore39¢ All11/17 65% Speeches / ceremonies3/4 75% small n Y Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore20¢ All8/22 36% Speeches / ceremonies2/10 20% N Y N N Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past JD Vance events where the word was a market.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If JD Vance says {word} as part of Oval Office announcement originally scheduled for October 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the Oval Office announcement originally scheduled for October 20, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Oval Office announcement originally scheduled for October 20, 2026 will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
JD Vance speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker