mentions

Case library

A case is a settled market worth learning from: what was said, how Kalshi settled it and the rule behind the result. The results come from Kalshi’s data. The reasons come from public sources or from traders’ reports; each case says which.

  • Confirmed the result is in Kalshi’s data and a public source confirms the reason.
  • Outcome only the result is in Kalshi’s data; the reason comes from traders’ reports and no public source confirms it.
  • Rule text no dispute: a clause of the rules worth knowing.
All topics 13 Plural and possessive 1 Slash alternatives 1 Compounds 1 Other word forms 3 Numbers 1 Recordings and clips 2 What part counts 4 Events that do not qualify 2 Dates and deadlines 2 Sources and rule changes 1
All speakers 1 Trump 0 Press Secretary 0 JD Vance 0 Zohran Mamdani 1 Bernie Sanders 0 Other speakers 0

1 case

“Free Bus / Fast & Free” settled YES; traders report the words were “fare-free bus”

Jan 7, 2026 Outcome only Zohran Mamdani

Events Zohran Mamdani’s First New Media Press Conference as Mayor

Words Free Bus / Fast & Free

The market “Free Bus / Fast & Free” on Mayor Mamdani’s first new-media press conference (Jan 7, 2026) settled YES. According to traders’ reports he said “fare-free bus” rather than “free bus”; no public transcript confirms the wording. The event’s own rules had no clause on hyphens, and the rule below comes from the current terms, published after this event.

Takeaway The current terms count a word inside a hyphenated compound (“pro-Palestine” for “Palestine”) but not inside a fused word (“wildfire” for “fire”). Older press-briefing and Trump window rules excluded hyphenated words, so check the date of the rules.

Rule in force Hyphenated compounds (words connected by hyphens) count terms PDF of May 6, 2026

Compounds