A case is a settled market worth learning from: what was said, how Kalshi settled it and the rule behind the result. The results come from Kalshi’s data. The reasons come from public sources or from traders’ reports; each case says which.
Confirmed the result is in Kalshi’s data and a public source confirms the reason.
Outcome only the result is in Kalshi’s data; the reason comes from traders’ reports and no public source confirms it.
Rule text no dispute: a clause of the rules worth knowing.
At Trump’s announcement with the EPA Administrator on May 21, 2026, the official transcript has him saying “electricity” (about Cuba) and “election”, but never “electric” or “EV”. The market settled NO. Traders’ reports also describe a cut-off word that began like “electr-”; the transcript does not show it, and no public source confirms it.
Takeaway A longer word built on the strike is a different word, so “electricity” is not “electric”. A broken-off fragment is not the word either: the terms forgive only minor mispronunciations when the word is still clear.
Rule in forceOther grammatical changes (tense, conjugation, derivation) do not.terms PDF of May 6, 2026
At the White House press briefing of Mar 25, 2026, the market “Affordable / Affordability” settled NO. According to traders’ reports, the press secretary said “afford” but neither listed form; no public transcript confirms this. A Kathy Hochul market a month earlier was listed as “Afford / Affordable / Affordability”, so Kalshi adds the verb when it wants the verb to count.
Takeaway A shared root is not a match: only the listed forms and their plurals and possessives count. A form missing from the slash list is excluded.
In his CBS Evening News interview on Jan 13, 2026, Trump called the strikes on Iran “a complete obliteration”. The transcript CBS published has that noun once and no “obliterate” or “obliterated”. The market settled NO.
Takeaway A noun made from a verb is a different word, even when it means the same thing. A verb market pays only on the listed verb forms.