mentions

Trump Announcement

What will Trump say during his announcement?

Held

Tue, Sep 30

10:30 AM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

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Also now Trump +2 later

5 said 21 not said of 26 words

Not held 2 of 41 past Trump events, 0 of 23 speeches / ceremonies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 178 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore39¢ All2/4 50% Speeches / ceremonies2/2 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies4/178 2% N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore30¢ All4/14 29% Speeches / ceremonies3/8 38% Official speeches / ceremonies32/178 18% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore86¢ All27/29 93% Speeches / ceremonies17/18 94% Official speeches / ceremonies119/178 67% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore50¢ All1/4 25% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies22/178 12% N N N Y
NO Before startBefore25¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies4/178 2% N N
YES Before startBefore84¢ All4/6 67% Speeches / ceremonies2/4 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies84/178 47% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore73¢ All5/6 83% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies75/178 42% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore71¢ All3/4 75% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies34/178 19% Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore32¢ All5/8 63% Speeches / ceremonies3/4 75% small n Official speeches / ceremonies51/178 29% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore20¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies12/178 7% N N
NO Before startBefore50¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies33/178 19% N N
NO Before startBefore54¢ All7/8 88% Speeches / ceremonies3/3 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies55/178 31% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore60¢ All2/5 40% Speeches / ceremonies2/3 67% small n Official speeches / ceremonies28/178 16% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore50¢ All4/8 50% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies39/178 22% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore70¢ All12/16 75% Speeches / ceremonies5/7 71% Official speeches / ceremonies52/178 29% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore19¢ All2/2 100% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies1/178 1% Y Y
NO Before startBefore32¢ All2/9 22% Speeches / ceremonies1/4 25% small n Official speeches / ceremonies57/178 32% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore22¢ All0/3 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies2/178 1% N N N
NO Before startBefore69¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies8/178 4% N N
NO Before startBefore62¢ All8/13 62% Speeches / ceremonies4/6 67% Official speeches / ceremonies63/178 35% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore71¢ All4/10 40% Speeches / ceremonies2/5 40% Official speeches / ceremonies87/178 49% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore43¢ All1/12 8% Speeches / ceremonies0/4 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies22/178 12% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore88¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies14/178 8% N N
NO Before startBefore48¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies12/178 7% —
NO Before startBefore34¢ All1/5 20% Speeches / ceremonies1/3 33% small n Official speeches / ceremonies15/178 8% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore61¢ All5/10 50% Speeches / ceremonies2/5 40% Official speeches / ceremonies72/178 40% N N Y N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

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Special for this event

  • If this event is not opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event this market will resolve to no.

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Trump says {word} as part of Oval Office announcement on September 30th, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Oval Office announcement on September 30th will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the Oval Office announcement on September 30th will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details. If this event is not opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event this market will resolve to no.

Cases

All cases of this speaker