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Trump holds Midterm Rally in St. Clair County, Michigan

What will Trump say during his rally in Michigan?

Held

Sun, Oct 25

3:00 PM ET /

Trump

Rally

Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now JD Vance

18 said 13 not said of 31 words

Not held 27 of 365 past Trump events, 0 of 24 rallies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Rallies Official rallies · 5 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore23¢ All61/179 34% Rallies6/21 29% Official rallies0/5 0% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore83¢ All29/94 31% Rallies10/23 43% Official rallies3/5 60% Y Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore85¢ All— Rallies— Official rallies0/5 0% —
YES Before startBefore93¢ All40/89 45% Rallies14/19 74% Official rallies1/5 20% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore50¢ All12/30 40% Rallies6/14 43% Official rallies1/5 20% N Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore87¢ All3/6 50% Rallies— Official rallies2/5 40% Y N N N Y
NO Before startBefore7¢ All9/101 9% Rallies0/19 0% Official rallies0/5 0% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore91¢ All24/42 57% Rallies17/20 85% Official rallies3/5 60% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore97¢ All34/73 47% Rallies3/3 100% small n Official rallies5/5 100% N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore1¢ All9/241 4% Rallies0/22 0% Official rallies0/5 0% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore16¢ All3/21 14% Rallies1/18 6% Official rallies1/5 20% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore97¢ All21/30 70% Rallies17/17 100% Official rallies1/5 20% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore15¢ All13/50 26% Rallies7/21 33% Official rallies1/5 20% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore97¢ All— Rallies— Official rallies1/5 20% —
NO Before startBefore13¢ All13/53 25% Rallies4/20 20% Official rallies2/5 40% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore74¢ All— Rallies— Official rallies0/5 0% —
NO Before startBefore32¢ All1/13 8% Rallies1/13 8% Official rallies0/5 0% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore59¢ All15/30 50% Rallies10/17 59% Official rallies2/5 40% N Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore65¢ All32/87 37% Rallies10/19 53% Official rallies2/5 40% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore93¢ All138/266 52% Rallies8/9 89% Official rallies4/5 80% Y Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore78¢ All20/31 65% Rallies13/19 68% Official rallies2/5 40% Y Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore38¢ All48/106 45% Rallies5/15 33% Official rallies1/5 20% N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore64¢ All14/31 45% Rallies11/18 61% Official rallies2/5 40% N Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore85¢ All14/27 52% Rallies12/18 67% Official rallies1/5 20% Y Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore89¢ All6/6 100% Rallies5/5 100% Official rallies2/5 40% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore2¢ All2/26 8% Rallies0/14 0% Official rallies1/5 20% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore73¢ All14/26 54% Rallies11/19 58% Official rallies3/5 60% N Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore97¢ All44/73 60% Rallies19/20 95% Official rallies3/5 60% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore86¢ All25/43 58% Rallies15/19 79% Official rallies3/5 60% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore95¢ All87/171 51% Rallies7/7 100% Official rallies5/5 100% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore87¢ All41/84 49% Rallies15/20 75% Official rallies3/5 60% Y Y Y Y N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official rallies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Rallies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Midterm Rally in St. Clair County, Michigan originally scheduled for October 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the Midterm Rally in St. Clair County, Michigan originally scheduled for October 25, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Midterm Rally in St. Clair County, Michigan originally scheduled for October 25, 2026 will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker