mentions

Trump makes an announcement with the Secretary of Commerce

What will Trump say during his announcement?

Held

Wed, Sep 30

3:30 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Transcribe Kalshi Ask AI about this event
Also now Trump +1 later

16 said 10 not said of 26 words

Not held 27 of 338 past Trump events, 12 of 193 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 402 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore31¢ All20/85 24% Speeches / ceremonies17/50 34% Official speeches / ceremonies67/402 17% N Y N N N
YES Before startBefore53¢ All53/153 35% Speeches / ceremonies37/87 43% Official speeches / ceremonies123/402 31% N Y N N N
YES Before startBefore78¢ All207/285 73% Speeches / ceremonies117/165 71% Official speeches / ceremonies252/402 63% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore44¢ All2/4 50% Speeches / ceremonies2/3 67% small n Official speeches / ceremonies110/402 27% N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore80¢ All50/81 62% Speeches / ceremonies33/50 66% Official speeches / ceremonies214/402 53% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore1¢ All9/216 4% Speeches / ceremonies7/129 5% Official speeches / ceremonies19/402 5% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore52¢ All62/114 54% Speeches / ceremonies37/66 56% Official speeches / ceremonies147/402 37% Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore— All11/32 34% Speeches / ceremonies6/20 30% Official speeches / ceremonies54/402 13% N Y N N N
YES Before startBefore71¢ All131/255 51% Speeches / ceremonies95/148 64% Official speeches / ceremonies162/402 40% Y Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore64¢ All22/42 52% Speeches / ceremonies15/25 60% Official speeches / ceremonies141/402 35% Y N Y N N
YES Before startBefore83¢ All15/21 71% Speeches / ceremonies9/13 69% Official speeches / ceremonies192/402 48% N Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore91¢ All18/31 58% Speeches / ceremonies12/17 71% Official speeches / ceremonies185/402 46% Y N N Y N
YES Before startBefore57¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies95/402 24% Y N
NO Before startBefore56¢ All4/11 36% Speeches / ceremonies4/10 40% Official speeches / ceremonies72/402 18% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore45¢ All3/11 27% Speeches / ceremonies3/6 50% Official speeches / ceremonies53/402 13% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore27¢ All9/15 60% Speeches / ceremonies7/9 78% Official speeches / ceremonies169/402 42% N Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore85¢ All94/132 71% Speeches / ceremonies50/76 66% Official speeches / ceremonies169/402 42% Y Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore96¢ All64/103 62% Speeches / ceremonies36/55 65% Official speeches / ceremonies198/402 49% Y Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore38¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies38/402 9% N Y
YES Before startBefore34¢ All6/7 86% Speeches / ceremonies4/5 80% Official speeches / ceremonies91/402 23% Y N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore41¢ All80/159 50% Speeches / ceremonies45/90 50% Official speeches / ceremonies114/402 28% N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore73¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies3/402 1% N
YES Before startBefore24¢ All27/65 42% Speeches / ceremonies20/45 44% Official speeches / ceremonies89/402 22% N Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore25¢ All2/16 13% Speeches / ceremonies1/8 13% Official speeches / ceremonies26/402 6% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore62¢ All2/2 100% Speeches / ceremonies2/2 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies160/402 40% Y Y
YES Before startBefore64¢ All2/2 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies134/402 33% Y Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Announcement with the Secretary of Commerce originally scheduled for September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the Announcement with the Secretary of Commerce originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Announcement with the Secretary of Commerce originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker