mentions

Trump makes an announcement in the Oval Office

What will Trump say during his announcement?

Held

Tue, Oct 20

1:30 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Transcribe Kalshi Ask AI about this event
Also now Bernie Sanders Trump +2 later

16 said 14 not said of 30 words

Not held 27 of 358 past Trump events, 12 of 199 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 403 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore29¢ All31/101 31% Speeches / ceremonies17/53 32% Official speeches / ceremonies67/403 17% N Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore24¢ All60/172 35% Speeches / ceremonies39/92 42% Official speeches / ceremonies123/403 31% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore71¢ All211/292 72% Speeches / ceremonies120/171 70% Official speeches / ceremonies253/403 63% N Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore90¢ All2/5 40% Speeches / ceremonies1/4 25% small n Official speeches / ceremonies282/403 70% N Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore74¢ All65/99 66% Speeches / ceremonies38/55 69% Official speeches / ceremonies215/403 53% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore2¢ All9/234 4% Speeches / ceremonies7/133 5% Official speeches / ceremonies19/403 5% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore22¢ All2/18 11% Speeches / ceremonies1/16 6% Official speeches / ceremonies43/403 11% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore63¢ All69/121 57% Speeches / ceremonies38/67 57% Official speeches / ceremonies148/403 37% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore73¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies55/403 14% —
YES Before startBefore94¢ All26/80 33% Speeches / ceremonies15/41 37% Official speeches / ceremonies69/403 17% N Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore46¢ All36/57 63% Speeches / ceremonies18/32 56% Official speeches / ceremonies64/403 16% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore31¢ All134/261 51% Speeches / ceremonies97/152 64% Official speeches / ceremonies163/403 40% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore81¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies18/403 4% —
YES Before startBefore44¢ All2/12 17% Speeches / ceremonies1/6 17% Official speeches / ceremonies65/403 16% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore55¢ All24/45 53% Speeches / ceremonies17/28 61% Official speeches / ceremonies142/403 35% N Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore75¢ All18/25 72% Speeches / ceremonies12/17 71% Official speeches / ceremonies193/403 48% N Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore55¢ All44/60 73% Speeches / ceremonies21/33 64% Official speeches / ceremonies114/403 28% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore16¢ All6/16 38% Speeches / ceremonies6/15 40% Official speeches / ceremonies72/403 18% N N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore75¢ All4/13 31% Speeches / ceremonies4/8 50% Official speeches / ceremonies54/403 13% N Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore64¢ All99/137 72% Speeches / ceremonies55/81 68% Official speeches / ceremonies169/403 42% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore81¢ All79/118 67% Speeches / ceremonies39/58 67% Official speeches / ceremonies199/403 49% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore20¢ All0/6 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/4 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies43/403 11% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore55¢ All17/27 63% Speeches / ceremonies9/14 64% Official speeches / ceremonies161/403 40% Y Y N N N
YES Before startBefore84¢ All5/16 31% Speeches / ceremonies2/8 25% Official speeches / ceremonies21/403 5% N Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore44¢ All83/165 50% Speeches / ceremonies48/95 51% Official speeches / ceremonies115/403 29% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore28¢ All37/79 47% Speeches / ceremonies21/47 45% Official speeches / ceremonies89/403 22% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore52¢ All129/201 64% Speeches / ceremonies84/122 69% Official speeches / ceremonies219/403 54% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore23¢ All1/3 33% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies124/403 31% N N Y
YES Before startBefore79¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies45/403 11% N
YES Before startBefore50¢ All31/68 46% Speeches / ceremonies13/38 34% Official speeches / ceremonies118/403 29% N N N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Oval Office announcement originally scheduled for October 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the Oval Office announcement originally scheduled for October 20, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Oval Office announcement originally scheduled for October 20, 2026 will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker