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White House Ballroom Dinner

What will Trump say during the Ballroom Dinner?

Held

Wed, Oct 15

7:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks During a Ballroom Dinner

Also now JD Vance +1 later

11 said 17 not said of 28 words

Not held 2 of 53 past Trump events, 0 of 30 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 190 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore40¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies44/190 23% —
NO Before startBefore33¢ All3/7 43% Speeches / ceremonies2/6 33% Official speeches / ceremonies26/190 14% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore28¢ All2/8 25% Speeches / ceremonies2/5 40% Official speeches / ceremonies5/190 3% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore18¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies33/190 17% N
YES Before startBefore79¢ All37/41 90% Speeches / ceremonies22/25 88% Official speeches / ceremonies127/190 67% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore57¢ All16/23 70% Speeches / ceremonies9/14 64% Official speeches / ceremonies104/190 55% Y N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore55¢ All16/19 84% Speeches / ceremonies12/15 80% Official speeches / ceremonies106/190 56% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore39¢ All0/6 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/3 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies10/190 5% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore38¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies27/190 14% N
NO Before startBefore70¢ All11/14 79% Speeches / ceremonies6/9 67% Official speeches / ceremonies91/190 48% Y N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore71¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies5/190 3% —
YES Before startBefore81¢ All5/9 56% Speeches / ceremonies1/4 25% small n Official speeches / ceremonies57/190 30% Y N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore71¢ All9/13 69% Speeches / ceremonies4/7 57% Official speeches / ceremonies108/190 57% N Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore54¢ All4/5 80% Speeches / ceremonies2/3 67% small n Official speeches / ceremonies32/190 17% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore31¢ All2/2 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies13/190 7% Y Y
YES Before startBefore51¢ All13/19 68% Speeches / ceremonies9/11 82% Official speeches / ceremonies60/190 32% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore15¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies17/190 9% N Y
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies2/190 1% —
YES Before startBefore77¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies59/190 31% Y
NO Before startBefore21¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies3/190 2% N N
NO Before startBefore46¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies28/190 15% —
NO Before startBefore18¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies0/190 0% —
NO Before startBefore51¢ All5/7 71% Speeches / ceremonies2/3 67% small n Official speeches / ceremonies46/190 24% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore45¢ All3/5 60% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies8/190 4% Y Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore62¢ All7/12 58% Speeches / ceremonies2/5 40% Official speeches / ceremonies17/190 9% Y N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore66¢ All17/21 81% Speeches / ceremonies8/9 89% Official speeches / ceremonies103/190 54% Y Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore56¢ All6/14 43% Speeches / ceremonies3/9 33% Official speeches / ceremonies76/190 40% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore31¢ All3/12 25% Speeches / ceremonies1/7 14% Official speeches / ceremonies25/190 13% N N Y N Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

No other event of this series closed in the 60 days before this one, so there is nothing to compare these rules with.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Ballroom Dinner on October 15th, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Ballroom Dinner on October 15th will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the Ballroom Dinner on October 15th will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details. If this event is not opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event this market will resolve to no.