mentions

JD Vance delivers remarks in Ohio

What will JD Vance say during his remarks in Ohio?

Held

Fri, Aug 21

1:00 PM ET /

JD Vance

Speech / ceremony

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Also now Trump +1 later

15 said 10 not said of 25 words

Not held 3 of 55 past JD Vance events, 2 of 25 speeches / ceremonies

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Word Result Before start All JD Vance events Speeches / ceremonies Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore79¢ All15/30 50% Speeches / ceremonies8/11 73% Y Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore15¢ All4/33 12% Speeches / ceremonies1/16 6% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore37¢ All3/31 10% Speeches / ceremonies2/14 14% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore91¢ All28/46 61% Speeches / ceremonies14/20 70% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore14¢ All1/3 33% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n N N Y
YES Before startBefore82¢ All6/13 46% Speeches / ceremonies5/9 56% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore66¢ All5/8 63% Speeches / ceremonies3/5 60% Y N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore96¢ All23/33 70% Speeches / ceremonies12/16 75% Y N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore97¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Y N
YES Before startBefore85¢ All9/23 39% Speeches / ceremonies4/8 50% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore92¢ All15/29 52% Speeches / ceremonies7/9 78% Y Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore35¢ All8/21 38% Speeches / ceremonies3/8 38% N Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore81¢ All17/27 63% Speeches / ceremonies7/11 64% N Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore53¢ All6/8 75% Speeches / ceremonies4/5 80% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore74¢ All4/6 67% Speeches / ceremonies2/4 50% small n N Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore36¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n N
YES Before startBefore85¢ All5/12 42% Speeches / ceremonies4/10 40% N Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore50¢ All10/19 53% Speeches / ceremonies3/6 50% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore10¢ All0/16 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/8 0% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore94¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— —
NO Before startBefore11¢ All0/5 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n N N N N N
YES Before startBefore59¢ All5/19 26% Speeches / ceremonies2/11 18% N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore63¢ All3/3 100% Speeches / ceremonies3/3 100% small n Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore94¢ All6/10 60% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore62¢ All1/7 14% Speeches / ceremonies1/4 25% small n N N N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past JD Vance events where the word was a market.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

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Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If JD Vance says {word} as part of remarks on the Trump Administration’s America First economic agenda, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the remarks on the Trump Administration’s America First economic agenda will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the remarks on the Trump Administration’s America First economic agenda will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on JD Vance speaking in an official capacity. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify — JD Vance must be speaking in an official capacity for the Contract to resolve Yes (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, or unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic, do not qualify).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker