mentions

JD Vance speaks on fraud in Kansas City

What will JD Vance say during his remarks on fraud?

Held

Mon, Sep 14

11:30 AM ET /

JD Vance

Speech / ceremony

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Also now Trump +1 later

8 said 16 not said of 24 words

Not held 3 of 60 past JD Vance events, 2 of 29 speeches / ceremonies

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Word Result Before start All JD Vance events Speeches / ceremonies Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore39¢ All7/18 39% Speeches / ceremonies3/5 60% Y Y N N N
NO Before startBefore61¢ All19/35 54% Speeches / ceremonies11/15 73% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore30¢ All6/36 17% Speeches / ceremonies2/18 11% N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore18¢ All4/36 11% Speeches / ceremonies3/18 17% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore76¢ All33/51 65% Speeches / ceremonies18/24 75% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore73¢ All10/17 59% Speeches / ceremonies3/6 50% N Y N N N
YES Before startBefore20¢ All8/13 62% Speeches / ceremonies5/9 56% N Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore97¢ All28/38 74% Speeches / ceremonies16/20 80% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore38¢ All3/6 50% Speeches / ceremonies2/4 50% small n Y N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore60¢ All13/28 46% Speeches / ceremonies7/12 58% Y Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore77¢ All0/5 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n N N N N N
YES Before startBefore80¢ All11/25 44% Speeches / ceremonies5/11 45% Y N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore43¢ All1/9 11% Speeches / ceremonies1/7 14% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore77¢ All21/32 66% Speeches / ceremonies10/15 67% Y Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore78¢ All4/6 67% Speeches / ceremonies2/3 67% small n N Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore71¢ All10/15 67% Speeches / ceremonies6/9 67% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore28¢ All12/24 50% Speeches / ceremonies4/10 40% N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore10¢ All0/19 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/10 0% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore26¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies— N
NO Before startBefore45¢ All12/20 60% Speeches / ceremonies5/9 56% N Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore31¢ All7/7 100% Speeches / ceremonies7/7 100% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore88¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies— N Y
NO Before startBefore13¢ All15/30 50% Speeches / ceremonies2/11 18% Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore30¢ All3/12 25% Speeches / ceremonies2/8 25% Y Y N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past JD Vance events where the word was a market.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

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Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If JD Vance says {word} as part of remarks on the Trump Administration’s crackdown on fraud in Kansas City, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the remarks on the Trump Administration’s crackdown on fraud in Kansas City using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the remarks on the Trump Administration’s crackdown on fraud in Kansas City will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
JD Vance speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker