mentions

Trump holds a signing ceremony

What will Trump say during the signing ceremony?

Held

Thu, Dec 11

4:45 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks on Signing an Executive Order Ensuring a National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence and an Exchange With Reporters

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Also now Trump +2 later

9 said 9 not said of 18 words

Not held 8 of 108 past Trump events, 4 of 61 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 232 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore33¢ All7/14 50% Speeches / ceremonies4/7 57% Official speeches / ceremonies19/232 8% Y Y N N N
NO Before startBefore50¢ All73/88 83% Speeches / ceremonies41/50 82% Official speeches / ceremonies151/232 65% Y Y N N N
YES Before startBefore35¢ All35/57 61% Speeches / ceremonies20/33 61% Official speeches / ceremonies123/232 53% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore24¢ All42/57 74% Speeches / ceremonies28/38 74% Official speeches / ceremonies126/232 54% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore9¢ All2/35 6% Speeches / ceremonies2/20 10% Official speeches / ceremonies12/232 5% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore41¢ All32/44 73% Speeches / ceremonies19/27 70% Official speeches / ceremonies115/232 50% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore13¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies3/232 1% N N
YES Before startBefore26¢ All26/39 67% Speeches / ceremonies15/23 65% Official speeches / ceremonies132/232 57% N Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore44¢ All40/66 61% Speeches / ceremonies29/37 78% Official speeches / ceremonies84/232 36% Y N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore23¢ All8/24 33% Speeches / ceremonies3/11 27% Official speeches / ceremonies32/232 14% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore38¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies31/232 13% N N
YES Before startBefore27¢ All11/21 52% Speeches / ceremonies7/13 54% Official speeches / ceremonies78/232 34% Y N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore38¢ All18/36 50% Speeches / ceremonies12/19 63% Official speeches / ceremonies87/232 38% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore16¢ All0/8 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies3/232 1% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore47¢ All45/60 75% Speeches / ceremonies26/33 79% Official speeches / ceremonies126/232 54% Y Y N N N
NO Before startBefore18¢ All1/3 33% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies27/232 12% N Y N
YES Before startBefore30¢ All27/30 90% Speeches / ceremonies17/19 89% Official speeches / ceremonies125/232 54% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore35¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies3/232 1% —

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

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Special for this event

  • For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
  • Additional content not included in the original broadcast or stream will not count.
  • Previous recordings aired during this event will count.

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of signing ceremony on December 11th, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the signing ceremony on December 11th will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the signing ceremony on December 11th will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details. For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event. Additional content not included in the original broadcast or stream will not count. Previous recordings aired during this event will count. If this event is not opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event this market will resolve to no.

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