mentions.tools

We moved to mentions.tools. Your data stays here until you .

Trump holds a Christmas Reception

What will Trump say during the Christmas Reception?

Not held (all words NO)

Mon, Dec 15

4:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now ABC World News +1 later

0 said 18 not said of 18 words

Not held 8 of 112 past Trump events, 4 of 65 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 237 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore65¢ All75/92 82% Speeches / ceremonies43/54 80% Official speeches / ceremonies153/237 65% Y N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies36/237 15% —
NO Before startBefore44¢ All36/58 62% Speeches / ceremonies21/34 62% Official speeches / ceremonies127/237 54% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore29¢ All43/60 72% Speeches / ceremonies29/41 71% Official speeches / ceremonies128/237 54% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore26¢ All3/7 43% Speeches / ceremonies1/3 33% small n Official speeches / ceremonies72/237 30% N Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore66¢ All35/47 74% Speeches / ceremonies22/30 73% Official speeches / ceremonies119/237 50% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore69¢ All28/43 65% Speeches / ceremonies17/27 63% Official speeches / ceremonies134/237 57% Y N N Y N
NO Before startBefore59¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies3/237 1% Y
NO Before startBefore35¢ All42/70 60% Speeches / ceremonies31/41 76% Official speeches / ceremonies86/237 36% N N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore— All9/26 35% Speeches / ceremonies4/13 31% Official speeches / ceremonies32/237 14% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore59¢ All0/3 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies31/237 13% N N N
NO Before startBefore43¢ All12/22 55% Speeches / ceremonies8/14 57% Official speeches / ceremonies80/237 34% Y Y N Y N
NO Before startBefore6¢ All0/11 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/5 0% Official speeches / ceremonies3/237 1% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies0/237 0% —
NO Before startBefore40¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies0/237 0% N
NO Before startBefore65¢ All48/63 76% Speeches / ceremonies29/36 81% Official speeches / ceremonies129/237 54% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore29¢ All2/4 50% Speeches / ceremonies2/3 67% small n Official speeches / ceremonies45/237 19% N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore59¢ All31/34 91% Speeches / ceremonies21/23 91% Official speeches / ceremonies129/237 54% Y Y Y Y Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Special for this event

  • For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
  • Additional content not included in the original broadcast or stream will not count.
  • Previous recordings aired during this event will not count.
  • If there are multiple Christmas Receptions on December 15th, both will count.

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Christmas Reception on December 15th, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Christmas Reception on December 15th will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the Christmas Reception on December 15th will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details. For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event. Additional content not included in the original broadcast or stream will not count. Previous recordings aired during this event will not count. If there are multiple Christmas Receptions on December 15th, both will count.

These markets have other rules text: Rob Reiner.

Cases

All cases of this speaker