mentions

Trump holds Mexican Border Defense Medal Presentation

What will Trump say during the Mexican Border Defense Medal Presentation?

Held

Mon, Dec 15

3:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks on Presenting the Mexican Border Defense Medal and an Exchange With Reporters

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Also now Trump Trump +1 later

12 said 8 not said of 20 words

Not held 8 of 111 past Trump events, 4 of 64 speeches / ceremonies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 237 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore34¢ All7/17 41% Speeches / ceremonies4/10 40% Official speeches / ceremonies20/237 8% N N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore33¢ All1/5 20% Speeches / ceremonies1/5 20% Official speeches / ceremonies41/237 17% N Y N N N
YES Before startBefore81¢ All74/91 81% Speeches / ceremonies42/53 79% Official speeches / ceremonies153/237 65% N Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore6¢ All2/38 5% Speeches / ceremonies2/23 9% Official speeches / ceremonies12/237 5% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore88¢ All34/46 74% Speeches / ceremonies21/29 72% Official speeches / ceremonies119/237 50% Y Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore10¢ All0/5 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/4 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies3/237 1% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore53¢ All12/22 55% Speeches / ceremonies6/12 50% Official speeches / ceremonies76/237 32% N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore60¢ All4/6 67% Speeches / ceremonies3/5 60% Official speeches / ceremonies21/237 9% Y Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore67¢ All27/42 64% Speeches / ceremonies16/26 62% Official speeches / ceremonies134/237 57% N N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore86¢ All2/6 33% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies34/237 14% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore49¢ All42/69 61% Speeches / ceremonies31/40 78% Official speeches / ceremonies86/237 36% N Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore88¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies70/237 30% —
YES Before startBefore86¢ All8/25 32% Speeches / ceremonies3/12 25% Official speeches / ceremonies32/237 14% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore59¢ All3/5 60% Speeches / ceremonies1/3 33% small n Official speeches / ceremonies103/237 43% N Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore22¢ All0/10 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/4 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies3/237 1% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore57¢ All11/23 48% Speeches / ceremonies3/11 27% Official speeches / ceremonies55/237 23% Y N N Y N
YES Before startBefore67¢ All47/62 76% Speeches / ceremonies28/35 80% Official speeches / ceremonies129/237 54% Y Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore89¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies61/237 26% —
YES Before startBefore67¢ All30/33 91% Speeches / ceremonies20/22 91% Official speeches / ceremonies129/237 54% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore62¢ All4/19 21% Speeches / ceremonies1/11 9% Official speeches / ceremonies60/237 25% N N N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

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Special for this event

  • Previous recordings aired during this event will count.

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Mexican Border Defense Medal Presentation, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Mexican Border Defense Medal Presentation will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the Mexican Border Defense Medal Presentation will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details. For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event. Additional content not included in the original broadcast or stream will not count. Previous recordings aired during this event will count. If this event is not opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event this market will resolve to no.

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