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Trump hosts a Rose Garden Club Lunch

What will Trump say during the Rose Garden Club Lunch?

Held

Tue, Oct 21

12:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks at a Lunch With Republican Senators

Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now JD Vance +1 later

16 said 8 not said of 24 words

Not held 2 of 58 past Trump events, 0 of 33 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 193 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore54¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies2/193 1% —
YES Before startBefore81¢ All1/2 50% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies11/193 6% Y N
YES Before startBefore80¢ All41/46 89% Speeches / ceremonies24/28 86% Official speeches / ceremonies129/193 67% N Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore62¢ All17/26 65% Speeches / ceremonies10/16 63% Official speeches / ceremonies106/193 55% N N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore68¢ All19/23 83% Speeches / ceremonies13/17 76% Official speeches / ceremonies107/193 55% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore41¢ All2/5 40% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies28/193 15% Y N N Y N
NO Before startBefore63¢ All5/8 63% Speeches / ceremonies2/4 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies72/193 37% N Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore70¢ All7/11 64% Speeches / ceremonies3/6 50% Official speeches / ceremonies59/193 31% Y Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore66¢ All11/15 73% Speeches / ceremonies5/8 63% Official speeches / ceremonies110/193 57% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore57¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies56/193 29% N
YES Before startBefore59¢ All15/23 65% Speeches / ceremonies10/13 77% Official speeches / ceremonies61/193 32% Y N N Y N
NO Before startBefore40¢ All0/7 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies37/193 19% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore46¢ All2/3 67% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies28/193 15% N Y Y
YES Before startBefore28¢ All5/7 71% Speeches / ceremonies2/4 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies53/193 27% N Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore43¢ All4/4 100% Speeches / ceremonies2/2 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies61/193 32% Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore39¢ All5/14 36% Speeches / ceremonies3/8 38% Official speeches / ceremonies33/193 17% N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore45¢ All2/4 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies77/193 40% N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore25¢ All0/3 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies8/193 4% N N N
YES Before startBefore59¢ All3/4 75% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies56/193 29% N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore24¢ All3/5 60% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies23/193 12% Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore59¢ All1/3 33% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies100/193 52% N Y N
YES Before startBefore63¢ All3/9 33% Speeches / ceremonies0/5 0% Official speeches / ceremonies8/193 4% N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore88¢ All7/17 41% Speeches / ceremonies2/8 25% Official speeches / ceremonies17/193 9% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore76¢ All20/24 83% Speeches / ceremonies10/11 91% Official speeches / ceremonies105/193 54% Y Y Y Y Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Rose Garden Club Lunch on October 21st, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Rose Garden Club Lunch on October 21st will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the Rose Garden Club Lunch on October 21st will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details. If this event is not opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event this market will resolve to no.

Cases

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