mentions

JD Vance speaks in Greensboro

What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina?

Held

Mon, Sep 21

11:00 AM ET /

JD Vance

Rally

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Also now Trump +2 later

17 said 13 not said of 30 words

Not held 3 of 63 past JD Vance events, 0 of 1 rally

Choose events
Word Result Before start All JD Vance events Rallies Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore84¢ All8/21 38% Rallies1/1 100% small n Y N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore86¢ All21/38 55% Rallies1/1 100% small n Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore16¢ All6/39 15% Rallies0/1 0% small n N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore12¢ All4/39 10% Rallies0/1 0% small n N N N N N
YES Before startBefore45¢ All13/25 52% Rallies0/1 0% small n N N Y N N
YES Before startBefore88¢ All36/54 67% Rallies1/1 100% small n Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore23¢ All11/20 55% Rallies0/1 0% small n N Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore49¢ All10/16 63% Rallies1/1 100% small n Y N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore84¢ All— Rallies— —
YES Before startBefore96¢ All31/41 76% Rallies1/1 100% small n Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore37¢ All3/9 33% Rallies0/1 0% small n N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore91¢ All16/31 52% Rallies1/1 100% small n Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore20¢ All0/2 0% Rallies— N N
NO Before startBefore23¢ All1/6 17% Rallies— Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore49¢ All13/27 48% Rallies— Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore25¢ All0/3 0% Rallies— N N N
YES Before startBefore16¢ All1/11 9% Rallies0/1 0% small n N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore86¢ All22/35 63% Rallies1/1 100% small n Y N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore17¢ All8/14 57% Rallies0/1 0% small n N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore42¢ All1/2 50% Rallies0/1 0% small n N Y
NO Before startBefore9¢ All6/31 19% Rallies0/1 0% small n N N N N N
NO Before startBefore11¢ All0/8 0% Rallies0/1 0% small n N N N N N
NO Before startBefore56¢ All0/1 0% Rallies0/1 0% small n N
NO Before startBefore26¢ All12/27 44% Rallies0/1 0% small n N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore11¢ All0/21 0% Rallies0/1 0% small n N N N N N
NO Before startBefore27¢ All3/4 75% Rallies0/1 0% small n N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore87¢ All— Rallies— —
NO Before startBefore23¢ All8/25 32% Rallies— N N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore91¢ All9/10 90% Rallies1/1 100% small n Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore42¢ All4/15 27% Rallies1/1 100% small n Y N N Y Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past JD Vance events where the word was a market.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Rallies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If JD Vance says {word} as part of rally in Greensboro, North Carolina originally scheduled for September 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

How this is resolved
Video of the rally in Greensboro, North Carolina originally scheduled for September 21, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the rally in Greensboro, North Carolina originally scheduled for September 21, 2026 will be used.

Payout Criteria
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
JD Vance speaking in an official capacity.
For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.

Doesn't count for payout
Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address.

Payout for cancellations and delays
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker