mentions

Trump holds Commander in Chief Trophy Presentation

What will Trump say during the Commander in Chief Trophy Presentation?

Held

Fri, Mar 20

10:30 AM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks on Presenting the Commander in Chief's Trophy to the United States Naval Academy Midshipmen

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Also now Trump +2 later

7 said 14 not said of 21 words

Not held 16 of 178 past Trump events, 8 of 105 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 287 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore10¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies44/287 15% Y
NO Before startBefore31¢ All7/22 32% Speeches / ceremonies5/17 29% Official speeches / ceremonies25/287 9% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore41¢ All111/146 76% Speeches / ceremonies64/87 74% Official speeches / ceremonies182/287 63% N Y Y N N
NO Before startBefore21¢ All62/91 68% Speeches / ceremonies38/57 67% Official speeches / ceremonies151/287 53% N Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore1¢ All4/87 5% Speeches / ceremonies4/55 7% Official speeches / ceremonies15/287 5% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore30¢ All62/83 75% Speeches / ceremonies33/48 69% Official speeches / ceremonies152/287 53% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore28¢ All2/13 15% Speeches / ceremonies0/7 0% Official speeches / ceremonies22/287 8% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore27¢ All41/59 69% Speeches / ceremonies27/38 71% Official speeches / ceremonies169/287 59% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore24¢ All1/4 25% Speeches / ceremonies1/3 33% small n Official speeches / ceremonies3/287 1% N N N Y
NO Before startBefore46¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies8/287 3% N
YES Before startBefore86¢ All2/4 50% Speeches / ceremonies1/3 33% small n Official speeches / ceremonies43/287 15% N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore18¢ All68/120 57% Speeches / ceremonies48/71 68% Official speeches / ceremonies109/287 38% N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore73¢ All28/40 70% Speeches / ceremonies16/25 64% Official speeches / ceremonies98/287 34% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore17¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies78/287 27% N N
NO Before startBefore1¢ All0/8 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/6 0% Official speeches / ceremonies0/287 0% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore41¢ All49/72 68% Speeches / ceremonies24/39 62% Official speeches / ceremonies96/287 33% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore41¢ All3/5 60% Speeches / ceremonies2/3 67% small n Official speeches / ceremonies40/287 14% Y N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore36¢ All12/29 41% Speeches / ceremonies5/15 33% Official speeches / ceremonies95/287 33% N Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore31¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies52/287 18% N
NO Before startBefore17¢ All19/33 58% Speeches / ceremonies14/25 56% Official speeches / ceremonies66/287 23% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore26¢ All55/68 81% Speeches / ceremonies38/44 86% Official speeches / ceremonies160/287 56% N Y N N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Special for this event

  • Video of the Commander in Chief Trophy Presentation will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Commander in Chief Trophy Presentation will be used.
  • Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
  • The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
  • If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
  • The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.
  • If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
  • If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Commander in Chief Trophy Presentation, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Commander in Chief Trophy Presentation will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Commander in Chief Trophy Presentation will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker