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Trump holds a Bilateral Meeting with Japan

What will Trump say during his bilateral meeting with Japan?

Held

Thu, Mar 19

11:00 AM ET /

Trump

Meeting

Official transcript Remarks Prior to a Meeting With Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae of Japan and an Exchange With Reporters

Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now Trump +1 later

11 said 16 not said of 27 words

Not held 16 of 176 past Trump events, 5 of 30 meetings

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Meetings Official meetings · 94 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore16¢ All22/55 40% Meetings3/7 43% Official meetings6/94 6% N Y N N N
NO Before startBefore47¢ All19/34 56% Meetings2/3 67% small n Official meetings28/94 30% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore72¢ All110/144 76% Meetings21/23 91% Official meetings62/94 66% Y N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore88¢ All61/89 69% Meetings11/15 73% Official meetings55/94 59% N Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore3¢ All4/85 5% Meetings0/13 0% Official meetings1/94 1% N N N Y N
YES Before startBefore56¢ All61/82 74% Meetings11/15 73% Official meetings42/94 45% N Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore64¢ All40/58 69% Meetings7/10 70% Official meetings53/94 56% Y Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore70¢ All2/4 50% Meetings0/1 0% small n Official meetings28/94 30% N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore65¢ All0/4 0% Meetings0/1 0% small n Official meetings1/94 1% N N N N
NO Before startBefore21¢ All68/118 58% Meetings9/21 43% Official meetings18/94 19% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore81¢ All13/22 59% Meetings2/4 50% small n Official meetings40/94 43% N Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore95¢ All27/38 71% Meetings2/3 67% small n Official meetings40/94 43% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore44¢ All5/15 33% Meetings— Official meetings6/94 6% N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore1¢ All0/7 0% Meetings0/1 0% small n Official meetings0/94 0% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore75¢ All12/21 57% Meetings6/6 100% Official meetings41/94 44% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore92¢ All49/71 69% Meetings11/13 85% Official meetings40/94 43% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore51¢ All2/4 50% Meetings0/1 0% small n Official meetings11/94 12% N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore92¢ All11/27 41% Meetings3/5 60% Official meetings31/94 33% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore24¢ All1/1 100% Meetings— Official meetings0/94 0% Y
YES Before startBefore85¢ All2/2 100% Meetings1/1 100% small n Official meetings6/94 6% Y Y
NO Before startBefore18¢ All16/52 31% Meetings8/14 57% Official meetings12/94 13% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore34¢ All1/3 33% Meetings— Official meetings9/94 10% N N Y
NO Before startBefore83¢ All71/96 74% Meetings16/19 84% Official meetings56/94 60% Y N Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore56¢ All1/2 50% Meetings0/1 0% small n Official meetings3/94 3% Y N
NO Before startBefore20¢ All4/20 20% Meetings— Official meetings13/94 14% N Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore63¢ All55/67 82% Meetings8/10 80% Official meetings52/94 55% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore44¢ All16/26 62% Meetings4/7 57% Official meetings54/94 57% Y Y N Y Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official meetings: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Meetings. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Special for this event

  • Video of the Bilateral Meeting will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Bilateral Meeting will be used.
  • Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
  • The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
  • If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
  • The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.
  • If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
  • If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Bilateral Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Bilateral Meeting will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Bilateral Meeting will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker