mentions

Trump delivers State of the Union

What will Trump say during the State of the Union?

Held

Tue, Feb 24

9:00 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Address Before a Joint Session of the Congress on the State of the Union

Transcribe Kalshi Ask AI about this event
Also now Trump +2 later

29 said 26 not said of 55 words

Not held 16 of 166 past Trump events, 8 of 95 speeches / ceremonies

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Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 272 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

YES Before startBefore94¢ All5/8 63% Speeches / ceremonies4/6 67% Official speeches / ceremonies64/272 24% N N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore79¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies16/272 6% —
YES Before startBefore94¢ All17/32 53% Speeches / ceremonies13/20 65% Official speeches / ceremonies85/272 31% N Y Y Y N
YES Before startBefore83¢ All1/3 33% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies43/272 16% N N Y
NO Before startBefore32¢ All2/6 33% Speeches / ceremonies2/6 33% Official speeches / ceremonies50/272 18% Y N Y N N
NO Before startBefore53¢ All7/17 41% Speeches / ceremonies5/12 42% Official speeches / ceremonies23/272 8% Y N N Y N
NO Before startBefore55¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies12/272 4% N
YES Before startBefore97¢ All2/5 40% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies29/272 11% N Y N N Y
YES Before startBefore57¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies33/272 12% Y
NO Before startBefore79¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies23/272 8% —
NO Before startBefore36¢ All3/77 4% Speeches / ceremonies3/47 6% Official speeches / ceremonies14/272 5% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore70¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies35/272 13% N N
NO Before startBefore12¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies1/272 0% —
NO Before startBefore20¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies19/272 7% Y
YES Before startBefore49¢ All4/9 44% Speeches / ceremonies2/6 33% Official speeches / ceremonies26/272 10% N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore64¢ All3/7 43% Speeches / ceremonies2/6 33% Official speeches / ceremonies44/272 16% N Y N N N
YES Before startBefore75¢ All24/36 67% Speeches / ceremonies13/21 62% Official speeches / ceremonies34/272 13% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore3¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies0/272 0% N
NO Before startBefore58¢ All8/17 47% Speeches / ceremonies4/12 33% Official speeches / ceremonies86/272 32% Y Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore82¢ All1/4 25% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies39/272 14% N N N Y
YES Before startBefore74¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies6/272 2% —
YES Before startBefore82¢ All1/8 13% Speeches / ceremonies1/3 33% small n Official speeches / ceremonies51/272 19% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore36¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies5/272 2% N
NO Before startBefore55¢ All3/9 33% Speeches / ceremonies3/6 50% Official speeches / ceremonies18/272 7% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore56¢ All3/10 30% Speeches / ceremonies2/3 67% small n Official speeches / ceremonies15/272 6% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore52¢ All6/15 40% Speeches / ceremonies3/11 27% Official speeches / ceremonies21/272 8% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore92¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies8/272 3% N
YES Before startBefore85¢ All65/110 59% Speeches / ceremonies45/63 71% Official speeches / ceremonies104/272 38% N Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore88¢ All9/26 35% Speeches / ceremonies3/15 20% Official speeches / ceremonies83/272 31% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore10¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies1/272 0% —
NO Before startBefore59¢ All1/5 20% Speeches / ceremonies1/5 20% Official speeches / ceremonies18/272 7% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore8¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies1/272 0% N
YES Before startBefore54¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies76/272 28% Y
YES Before startBefore69¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies9/272 3% Y
NO Before startBefore15¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies0/272 0% —
YES Before startBefore26¢ All1/1 100% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies33/272 12% Y
YES Before startBefore90¢ All46/68 68% Speeches / ceremonies22/37 59% Official speeches / ceremonies85/272 31% Y Y N N N
YES Before startBefore92¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies45/272 17% —
NO Before startBefore80¢ All18/38 47% Speeches / ceremonies8/21 38% Official speeches / ceremonies67/272 25% Y Y Y N Y
NO Before startBefore74¢ All10/20 50% Speeches / ceremonies5/11 45% Official speeches / ceremonies42/272 15% Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore42¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies1/272 0% —
NO Before startBefore35¢ All4/9 44% Speeches / ceremonies2/5 40% Official speeches / ceremonies30/272 11% Y Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore94¢ All4/14 29% Speeches / ceremonies1/6 17% Official speeches / ceremonies14/272 5% Y Y N N N
YES Before startBefore88¢ All16/26 62% Speeches / ceremonies11/18 61% Official speeches / ceremonies60/272 22% N N Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore81¢ All6/18 33% Speeches / ceremonies4/13 31% Official speeches / ceremonies54/272 20% N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore23¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies14/272 5% —
YES Before startBefore81¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies2/272 1% —
NO Before startBefore69¢ All3/17 18% Speeches / ceremonies1/11 9% Official speeches / ceremonies47/272 17% N Y Y N N
YES Before startBefore98¢ All52/60 87% Speeches / ceremonies35/38 92% Official speeches / ceremonies153/272 56% N Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore91¢ All15/25 60% Speeches / ceremonies9/11 82% Official speeches / ceremonies153/272 56% Y N Y Y N
YES Before startBefore86¢ All2/2 100% Speeches / ceremonies2/2 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies7/272 3% Y Y
NO Before startBefore40¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies8/272 3% N
NO Before startBefore36¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies23/272 8% —
NO Before startBefore35¢ All2/5 40% Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies15/272 6% Y N Y N N
YES Before startBefore69¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies35/272 13% N N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of 2026 State of the Union, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the 2026 State of the Union will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the 2026 State of the Union will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details. For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event. Previous recordings aired during this event will not count.

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