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Trump hosts DHS swearing-in ceremony

What will Trump say during the DHS swearing-in ceremony?

Held

Tue, Mar 24

1:30 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks at a Swearing-in Ceremony for Markwayne Mullin as Secretary of Homeland Security and an Exchange With Reporters

Transcribe Kalshi Word matrix Ask AI about this event
Also now Trump +1 later

18 said 10 not said of 28 words

Not held 16 of 180 past Trump events, 8 of 107 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 290 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore11¢ All22/56 39% Speeches / ceremonies12/32 38% Official speeches / ceremonies33/290 11% N N Y N N
NO Before startBefore9¢ All19/36 53% Speeches / ceremonies15/23 65% Official speeches / ceremonies90/290 31% N N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore11¢ All7/23 30% Speeches / ceremonies5/18 28% Official speeches / ceremonies25/290 9% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore74¢ All113/148 76% Speeches / ceremonies66/89 74% Official speeches / ceremonies185/290 64% Y Y N Y Y
NO Before startBefore2¢ All4/89 4% Speeches / ceremonies4/57 7% Official speeches / ceremonies15/290 5% N N N N N
YES Before startBefore— All6/6 100% Speeches / ceremonies3/3 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies214/290 74% Y Y Y Y Y
YES Before startBefore88¢ All63/84 75% Speeches / ceremonies34/49 69% Official speeches / ceremonies155/290 53% Y Y N Y N
YES Before startBefore35¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies20/290 7% N N
NO Before startBefore— All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies8/290 3% N N
YES Before startBefore24¢ All3/7 43% Speeches / ceremonies2/4 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies96/290 33% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore20¢ All0/6 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/4 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies1/290 0% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore23¢ All69/122 57% Speeches / ceremonies49/73 67% Official speeches / ceremonies110/290 38% Y N N N N
YES Before startBefore64¢ All3/4 75% Speeches / ceremonies2/3 67% small n Official speeches / ceremonies28/290 10% Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore64¢ All10/33 30% Speeches / ceremonies5/18 28% Official speeches / ceremonies44/290 15% N N N N Y
YES Before startBefore80¢ All30/42 71% Speeches / ceremonies18/27 67% Official speeches / ceremonies100/290 34% Y Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore35¢ All1/4 25% Speeches / ceremonies1/4 25% small n Official speeches / ceremonies79/290 27% Y N N N
NO Before startBefore41¢ All1/3 33% Speeches / ceremonies1/3 33% small n Official speeches / ceremonies55/290 19% Y N N
YES Before startBefore— All2/3 67% Speeches / ceremonies2/3 67% small n Official speeches / ceremonies80/290 28% N Y Y
NO Before startBefore38¢ All8/23 35% Speeches / ceremonies5/12 42% Official speeches / ceremonies50/290 17% Y N Y N N
YES Before startBefore45¢ All3/4 75% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies63/290 22% Y Y N Y
YES Before startBefore28¢ All3/7 43% Speeches / ceremonies2/5 40% Official speeches / ceremonies40/290 14% N N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore39¢ All12/31 39% Speeches / ceremonies5/17 29% Official speeches / ceremonies95/290 33% N N N Y Y
YES Before startBefore— All19/41 46% Speeches / ceremonies9/24 38% Official speeches / ceremonies70/290 24% N Y N Y Y
YES Before startBefore69¢ All2/3 67% Speeches / ceremonies2/2 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies10/290 3% Y N Y
YES Before startBefore77¢ All17/54 31% Speeches / ceremonies7/28 25% Official speeches / ceremonies36/290 12% Y N N N N
NO Before startBefore13¢ All71/98 72% Speeches / ceremonies45/58 78% Official speeches / ceremonies163/290 56% N N Y N Y
YES Before startBefore42¢ All5/22 23% Speeches / ceremonies3/15 20% Official speeches / ceremonies55/290 19% Y N N Y N
YES Before startBefore— All17/28 61% Speeches / ceremonies10/13 77% Official speeches / ceremonies169/290 58% N Y Y Y N

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Standard rules for this series.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Swearing-In Ceremony for the Secretary of Homeland Security, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Swearing-In Ceremony for the Secretary of Homeland Security will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Swearing-In Ceremony for the Secretary of Homeland Security will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker