mentions

Trump hosts dinner with the Prime Minister of Japan

What will Trump say during his Dinner with the Prime Minister of Japan?

Held

Thu, Mar 19

7:15 PM ET /

Trump

Speech / ceremony

Official transcript Remarks Prior to a Dinner With Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi of Japan

Transcribe Kalshi Ask AI about this event
Also now Trump +2 later

0 said 26 not said of 26 words

Not held 16 of 177 past Trump events, 8 of 104 speeches / ceremonies

Choose events
Word Result Before start All Trump events Speeches / ceremonies Official speeches / ceremonies · 286 Last 5, newest first

Last 5: Said Not said Other format

NO Before startBefore39¢ All7/21 33% Speeches / ceremonies5/16 31% Official speeches / ceremonies25/286 9% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore53¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies18/286 6% —
NO Before startBefore47¢ All111/145 77% Speeches / ceremonies64/86 74% Official speeches / ceremonies182/286 64% Y Y N N Y
NO Before startBefore60¢ All62/90 69% Speeches / ceremonies38/56 68% Official speeches / ceremonies151/286 53% Y N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore4¢ All4/86 5% Speeches / ceremonies4/54 7% Official speeches / ceremonies15/286 5% N N N N Y
NO Before startBefore44¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies8/286 3% —
NO Before startBefore53¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies115/286 40% —
NO Before startBefore43¢ All3/5 60% Speeches / ceremonies2/2 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies96/286 34% Y N Y Y N
NO Before startBefore30¢ All0/5 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/3 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies1/286 0% N N N N N
NO Before startBefore25¢ All68/119 57% Speeches / ceremonies48/70 69% Official speeches / ceremonies109/286 38% N N N Y N
NO Before startBefore57¢ All13/23 57% Speeches / ceremonies8/13 62% Official speeches / ceremonies128/286 45% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore72¢ All28/39 72% Speeches / ceremonies16/24 67% Official speeches / ceremonies98/286 34% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore21¢ All0/1 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/1 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies78/286 27% N
NO Before startBefore— All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies5/286 2% —
NO Before startBefore27¢ All2/2 100% Speeches / ceremonies2/2 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies41/286 14% Y Y
NO Before startBefore55¢ All4/7 57% Speeches / ceremonies2/5 40% Official speeches / ceremonies71/286 25% Y N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore69¢ All12/28 43% Speeches / ceremonies5/14 36% Official speeches / ceremonies95/286 33% Y Y Y Y N
NO Before startBefore13¢ All0/2 0% Speeches / ceremonies0/2 0% small n Official speeches / ceremonies0/286 0% N N
NO Before startBefore47¢ All10/23 43% Speeches / ceremonies5/14 36% Official speeches / ceremonies43/286 15% N N N Y Y
NO Before startBefore48¢ All3/3 100% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies11/286 4% Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore47¢ All5/5 100% Speeches / ceremonies3/3 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies62/286 22% Y Y Y Y Y
NO Before startBefore28¢ All19/32 59% Speeches / ceremonies14/24 58% Official speeches / ceremonies66/286 23% N N Y N Y
NO Before startBefore12¢ All— Speeches / ceremonies— Official speeches / ceremonies0/286 0% —
NO Before startBefore20¢ All1/4 25% Speeches / ceremonies1/2 50% small n Official speeches / ceremonies19/286 7% N N N Y
NO Before startBefore24¢ All1/3 33% Speeches / ceremonies1/1 100% small n Official speeches / ceremonies13/286 5% N Y N
NO Before startBefore36¢ All17/27 63% Speeches / ceremonies10/12 83% Official speeches / ceremonies166/286 58% Y Y Y N Y

How to read a row

  • k/n: said in k of n past Trump events where the word was a market.
  • Official speeches / ceremonies: said in k of n official White House transcripts of this speaker from before this event, from govinfo.gov. A transcript counts when the word is said at least as many times as the market needs.
  • Said (YES) Not said (NO) Other format than Speeches / ceremonies. Last 5 runs newest first.
  • small n fewer than 5 past events.
  • Your own mark: Y, N or ?, kept only in this browser.

Rules

Full terms (PDF) Settlement sources: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico

Ask AI about these rules

Special for this event

  • Video of the Dinner with the Prime Minister of Japan will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Dinner with the Prime Minister of Japan will be used.
  • Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
  • The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
  • If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
  • The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.
  • If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).
  • If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Not in the usual rules of this series: fewer than 1 in 10 of its events of the 60 days before this one had them.

Each market: If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Dinner with the Prime Minister of Japan, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules

Video of the Dinner with the Prime Minister of Japan will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Dinner with the Prime Minister of Japan will be used.

Payout Criterion:
The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
The event must be opened to the press for a live televised or streamed event to qualify.
Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address will not count.
Please see full rules for more details.

Event does not qualify:
If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.
The event will resolve based on Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity. If Donald Trump is or is not present during a livestream, and does not speak in an official capacity the market will not qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic).

Postponement:
If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.

Cases

All cases of this speaker